Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) Signals Near-Term Pullback Despite Momentum Hold

Dollar Tree enters the coming weeks with operational scale and cash-flow resilience but faces a tactical tug between upside momentum and pressure from above-target pricing. Near-term action should follow technical strength tempered by valuation and leverage metrics.

Recent News

May 28, 2026 — Dollar Tree announced a partnership with DoorDash to provide on-demand access to Dollar Tree assortments and promotional offers for new consumers. August 6, 2026 — the company scheduled its second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings conference call for August 27, 2026.

Technical Analysis

ADX reads 27.13, indicating a strong trend environment; trend strength supports near-term directional conviction but does not assign direction by itself.

DI+ sits at 27.75 with a peak-and-reversal pattern, which signals a bearish shift in the plus-directional series; DI- at 16.63 also shows a peak-and-reversal pattern that signals a bullish shift in the negative-directional series. The paired peaks imply recent churn between buyers and sellers and increase the odds of range-bound swings around current levels.

MACD equals 2.57 with a signal line at 2.47 and a peak-and-reversal trend. The peak-and-reversal reads as bearish momentum, yet the MACD currently sits just above its signal line, which registers as a recent bullish crossover signal; the combination suggests momentum has cooled after a peak but retains a short-lived bullish bias.

MRO at 25.03 (peak-and-reversal) remains positive, indicating the market price sits above the model target and that mean reversion pressure exists — expect a propensity for price concession from premium levels rather than immediate runaway strength.

RSI at 59.61 with a dip-and-reversal trend indicates recovery from a short-term pullback and supports near-term upside attempts, though the level stops short of overbought territory.

Price sits above the 20-day ($130.61), 50-day ($124.64) and 200-day ($116.10) averages, and the 12-day EMA (price 12-day EMA 131.30, trend increasing) confirms upward-sloping short- and medium-term averages; this alignment favors bullish posture provided those averages hold as support. Price trades modestly above the 1x Bollinger upper band ($133.33), suggesting a slight extension versus recent volatility rather than an extreme breakout.

Volume today (~2.62M) exceeds the 10-day average (~2.06M), indicating above-average participation on the recent move, while longer-term volume averages remain higher; the uplift in short-term activity gives the current move higher statistical weight but not a definitive trend continuation signal.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings per share printed $1.74 versus an estimate of $1.54, producing an EPS surprise of approximately 12.99%. Forward EPS sits at $1.935 and forward P/E at about 57.72x; the trailing P/E measures roughly 58.85x, indicating elevated multiples relative to absolute earnings today.

Margins show mixed dynamics: gross margin runs near 36.87%, operating margin about 9.51% and EBIT margin roughly 9.62%. EBIT margin changed QoQ by -24.50% but registered essentially flat YoY (+0.14%), signaling compression quarter-to-quarter with near-stable year-over-year profitability. Gross margin improved YoY by 3.52% (YoY gross margin +3.52%), while operating metrics tightened sequentially.

Revenue metrics portray contraction: revenue growth reads -8.71% on the provided metric and a deeper reported year-over-year figure at -95.48% in the dataset labels; the dataset shows severe sequential declines as well (revenue growth QoQ -159.16%). Operating cash flow reached $644,000,000 with free cash flow of $391,100,000 and a free cash flow yield of about 1.98%. Cash conversion ratio stands at 9.68 and the company ended the period with $1,007,300,000 in cash and short-term investments.

Leverage remains elevated: total debt $7,593,300,000, net debt ~$1,925,300,000, debt-to-equity ~216.52%, and debt to EBITDA ~11.58x. Interest coverage at ~29.37x alleviates immediate solvency concerns but the absolute leverage measures imply constrained financial flexibility versus lower-leverage peers. Current ratio ~1.16 and quick ratio ~0.39 show modest near-term liquidity.

Operational efficiency and returns: asset turnover ~0.36 (slightly below the industry peer mean of ~0.38), return on equity ~9.90% (above the industry peer mean of ~7.13%), and return on assets ~2.55% (near peer mean). These data indicate solid capital returns despite lower turnover and higher leverage.

Valuation: WMDST values the stock as under-valued. The valuation judgment sits alongside high P/E multiples and modest free cash flow yield, implying WMDST’s model attributes intrinsic upside relative to current market pricing despite stretched multiples and elevated leverage.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-04-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-27
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 760.7 M
 Operating Cash Flow 644.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -252.90 M
 Change In Working Capital -24.60 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 290.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 1.1 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 5.0 B
 Forward Revenue 1.3 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 3.1 B
 Depreciation 177.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 177.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 4.5 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 1.8 B
 EBITDA 655.7 M
 EBIT 478.7 M
 Operating Income 473.3 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 16.3 M
 Net Interest Income -16.30 M
 Income Before Tax 462.4 M
 Tax Provision 115.1 M
 Tax Rate 24.892 %
 Net Income 347.3 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 347.3 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.54
 EPS Actual 1.74
 EPS Difference 0.20
 EPS Surprise 12.987 %
 Forward EPS 1.94
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 13.8 B
 Intangible Assets 423.0 M
 Net Tangible Assets 3.1 B
 Total Current Assets 3.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.0 B
 Cash 1.0 B
 Net Receivables
 Inventory 2.5 B
 Long-Term Investments 194.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.6 B
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 3.2 B
 Net Debt 1.9 B
 Total Debt 7.6 B
 Total Liabilities 10.3 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.5 B
 Retained Earnings 3.6 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 18.13
 Shares Outstanding 193.393 M
 Revenue Per-Share 25.73
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 19.8 B
 Enterprise Value 26.4 B
 Enterprise Multiple 40.246
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 14.665 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 0.234 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 70.906
mean: 53.991
median: 44.501
DLTR: 40.246
low: 35.024
 EV/R 5.304
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.942
 Asset To Liability 1.34
 Debt To Capital 0.684
 Debt To Assets 0.549
Debt To Assets QoQ 4.836 %
Debt To Assets YoY 27.059 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA DLTR: 0.549
high: 0.498
mean: 0.35
median: 0.325
low: 0.304
 Debt To Equity 2.165
Debt To Equity QoQ 15.228 %
Debt To Equity YoY 6.92 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA DLTR: 2.165
high: 1.786
median: 1.149
mean: 1.066
low: 0.749
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 5.647
Price To Book QoQ -11.75 %
Price To Book YoY 29.196 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 10.901
mean: 6.574
DLTR: 5.647
median: 3.345
low: 0.398
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 58.85
Price To Earnings QoQ 24.473 %
Price To Earnings YoY -8.695 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 105.986
mean: 84.0
median: 70.603
DLTR: 58.85
low: -109.011
 PE/G Ratio -1.837
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.98
Price To Sales QoQ -9.709 %
Price To Sales YoY 8.196 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 11.435
mean: 6.629
DLTR: 3.98
median: 2.412
low: 0.506
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 57.723
Forward PE/G -1.802
Forward P/S 14.978
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3.568
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.365
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -9.273 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 45.15 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.433
median: 0.386
mean: 0.384
DLTR: 0.365
low: 0.239
 Receivables Turnover
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Inventory Turnover 1.265
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.155 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 13.832 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.509
median: 1.467
mean: 1.387
DLTR: 1.265
low: 0.639
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 25.757
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -19.962 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 44.239
DLTR: 25.757
mean: 17.198
low: 8.351
median: 8.351
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 9.681
 CapEx To Revenue -0.051
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.429
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 6.4 B
 Net Invested Capital 6.4 B
 Invested Capital 6.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets 3.1 B
 Net Working Capital 514.0 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.316
 Current Ratio 1.161
Current Ratio QoQ 8.807 %
Current Ratio YoY 11.279 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.098
median: 1.482
mean: 1.318
DLTR: 1.161
low: 0.932
 Quick Ratio 0.386
Quick Ratio QoQ 30.904 %
Quick Ratio YoY -46.115 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 1.271
mean: 0.631
DLTR: 0.386
median: 0.306
low: 0.253
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 11.58
 Cost Of Debt 0.167 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 29.368
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -23.472 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 49.541 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 111.165
mean: 55.382
DLTR: 29.368
median: 13.517
low: 0.73
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.183
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 42.584
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.656 %
 Revenue Growth -8.713 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -159.163 %
Revenue Growth YoY -95.48 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: -1.139 %
DLTR: -8.713 %
median: -9.419 %
mean: -11.955 %
low: -38.778 %
 Earnings Growth -32.031 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -128.709 %
Earnings Growth YoY -20.487 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 3.627 %
median: 1.0 %
mean: -13.755 %
DLTR: -32.031 %
low: -112.15 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 36.874 %
Gross Margin QoQ -5.869 %
Gross Margin YoY 3.518 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 43.101 %
DLTR: 36.874 %
mean: 30.431 %
median: 29.613 %
low: 29.014 %
 EBIT Margin 9.621 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -24.5 %
EBIT Margin YoY 0.135 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 14.06 %
DLTR: 9.621 %
mean: 9.284 %
median: 5.919 %
low: 1.452 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 9.512 %
Return On Sales QoQ -25.367 %
Return On Sales YoY -0.999 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 13.377 %
DLTR: 9.512 %
mean: 8.976 %
median: 5.919 %
low: 1.452 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 391.1 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.975 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -51.005 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 43.95 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA DLTR: 1.975 %
high: 1.562 %
median: 0.912 %
mean: 0.431 %
low: -9.867 %
 Free Cash Growth -59.618 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -90.538 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -25.595 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: -31.902 %
median: -37.354 %
DLTR: -59.618 %
mean: -62.942 %
low: -123.032 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.126
 Cash Flow Margin 11.697 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.676
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 2.545 %
Return On Assets QoQ -31.806 %
Return On Assets YoY 36.902 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.179 %
mean: 2.613 %
DLTR: 2.545 %
median: 1.418 %
low: -0.106 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 4.499 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.099
Return On Equity QoQ -26.525 %
Return On Equity YoY 12.611 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.103
DLTR: 0.099
mean: 0.071
median: 0.05
low: -0.003
 DuPont ROE 9.565 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 5.583 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -34.256 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 23.956 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.956 %
mean: 5.638 %
DLTR: 5.583 %
median: 3.573 %
low: 0.7 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect a near-term, range-bound regime with a slight downside tail risk. Technical alignment of price above multiple moving averages and RSI recovery supports continued attempts at higher levels, while a positive MRO and the MACD peak-and-reversal increase the probability of intermittent pullbacks. Elevated leverage and sequential margin compression amplify sensitivity to macro or execution-driven headlines. Short-term traders should monitor whether the 20–50 day averages hold as support and watch volume behavior for conviction; absent those confirmations, price is more likely to oscillate than to trend decisively.

About Dollar Tree, Inc.

Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) develops a significant presence in the discount retail industry, with its headquarters in Chesapeake, Virginia. The company manages two main segments: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. Dollar Tree stores implement a fixed pricing strategy, offering a diverse selection of products for $1.25. Customers discover a variety of items, including consumables such as food, health and personal care products, and household essentials, alongside seasonal and specialty goods like party supplies and arts and crafts. Family Dollar expands the product range by offering a comprehensive selection of general merchandise. This includes consumables, home products, apparel, and electronics, meeting a broad spectrum of consumer demands. Shoppers find everything from groceries to fashion accessories in one convenient location. Both segments emphasize value and convenience, establishing Dollar Tree, Inc. as a preferred choice for budget-minded consumers in the United States and Canada. Dollar Tree, Inc. consistently grows its market presence, managing thousands of stores and distribution centers. The company remains committed to providing essential products at affordable prices, serving communities with a focus on quality and accessibility.



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