ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) Accelerates Recovery As Momentum Signals Near-Term Upside

ArcelorMittal shows improving momentum and price structure while fundamentals reveal mixed cash-flow pressure against solid operating margins. Short-term technical strength collides with a WMDST valuation that judges the stock over-valued.

Recent News

On July 6th the company published second‑quarter sell‑side consensus figures; on June 18th ArcelorMittal released a video address marking its 20th anniversary; on June 11th the Poland operation recorded a milestone iron‑ore shipment to a Dąbrowa Górnicza steelworks; on July 22nd ArcelorMittal Spain announced the start of a second tranche of its 2025–2030 share‑buyback programme.

Technical Analysis

Directional movement & trend strength: ADX at 10.2 indicates no strong trend; DI+ at 26.51 decreasing registers bearish directional momentum while DI− at 29.48 decreasing registers bullish directional momentum, together signaling directional pressure has weakened and the market lacks a clear trend.

MACD: MACD stands at 0.54 with the signal at 0.30 and a rising MACD_trend; the MACD currently trades above its signal line, representing bullish momentum and recent upward convergence of shorter‑term momentum versus longer‑term momentum.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO reads 16.05 (positive), indicating price sits above the WMDST target and carries potential for a near‑term decrease as momentum normalizes.

RSI: RSI at 54.06 with a dip‑and‑reversal pattern indicates the oscillator rebounded from lower levels into neutral territory, supporting near‑term upside without overbought risk yet.

Price vs. moving averages and bands: Last close $66.88 exceeds the 200‑day average $54.06 and tracks above 12‑ and 26‑day EMAs (12‑day EMA $65.81), with price near the upper 1x Bollinger band ($67.30); short‑term trend reads as strength but volatility remains elevated given 42‑day beta 1.69 and 52‑week beta 2.00.

Volume & support: Current volume below 10‑ and 50‑day averages suggests the recent advance carries lighter participation; the supertrend lower support sits at $62.25, providing a near‑term structural floor.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: EBIT equals $850.0M, producing an EBIT margin of 5.50%. EBIT margin rose QoQ by +26.20% but fell YoY by −21.68%. WMDST notes the EBIT margin remains below the industry peer mean of 13.477% and below the industry peer median of 10.743%.

Earnings: Reported EPS was $0.75 versus an estimate of $0.71, an EPS surprise of +5.63% (actual‐estimate)/estimate. Forward EPS stands at $1.8058 giving a forward P/E of 31.06x against a reported trailing P/E of 74.79x; the trailing P/E sits below the industry peer mean of 90.19x but above the industry peer median of 65.35x.

Cash flow and leverage: Free cash flow totaled −$1.28B, producing a free cash flow yield of −3.00% and free cash growth weakness year‑over‑year. Operating cash flow reads −$9.0M. Interest coverage equals 6.39x, while net debt totals $9.324B and debt/EBITDA registers 8.56x; debt ratios imply meaningful leverage relative to EBITDA despite adequate interest coverage.

Liquidity and working capital: Cash and short‑term investments total $4.359B; current ratio stands at 1.39 and quick ratio at 0.54. Net working capital approximates $8.485B and the cash conversion cycle is 22.45 days, substantially below the industry peer mean of 102.10 days, reflecting efficient receivables and inventory turns.

Efficiency and returns: Asset turnover equals 0.158x, below the industry peer mean of 0.2466x, limiting top‑line conversion into asset‑driven returns. Return on equity sits at 1.04% and return on assets at 0.59%, both down YoY, while operating margin of 4.872% trails the industry peer mean.

Valuation summary: WMDST values the stock as over‑valued. Key valuation ratios show price/book at 0.77x (below the industry peer mean of 4.75x) and a forward P/E of 31.06x versus a forward EPS that implies elevated growth expectations given negative PEG measures; free cash flow remains negative, creating a valuation tension between market multiples and cash generation.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-30
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow
 Operating Cash Flow -9.00 M
 Capital Expenditures -1.27 B
 Change In Working Capital -1.52 B
 Dividends Paid -114.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta
 End Period Cash Flow
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 15.5 B
 Forward Revenue 9.2 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue
 Depreciation 749.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 749.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit
 EBITDA 850.0 M
 EBIT 850.0 M
 Operating Income 753.0 M
 Interest Income 133.0 M
 Interest Expense 133.0 M
 Net Interest Income
 Income Before Tax 717.0 M
 Tax Provision 136.0 M
 Tax Rate 18.968 %
 Net Income 575.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 575.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.71
 EPS Actual 0.75
 EPS Difference 0.04
 EPS Surprise 5.634 %
 Forward EPS 1.81
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 98.3 B
 Intangible Assets 5.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 49.7 B
 Total Current Assets 30.5 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 4.4 B
 Cash 4.4 B
 Net Receivables 4.1 B
 Inventory 18.7 B
 Long-Term Investments 1.9 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 12.3 B
 Short-Term Debt 2.7 B
 Total Current Liabilities 22.0 B
 Net Debt 9.3 B
 Total Debt 13.7 B
 Total Liabilities 41.1 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 55.2 B
 Retained Earnings
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 72.51
 Shares Outstanding 760.428 M
 Revenue Per-Share 20.31
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 42.7 B
 Enterprise Value 52.0 B
 Enterprise Multiple 32.532
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -9.18 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 96.436 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 135.162
mean: 54.502
median: 42.349
MT: 32.532
low: -12.173
 EV/R 3.365
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.78
 Asset To Liability 2.393
 Debt To Capital 0.199
 Debt To Assets 0.139
Debt To Assets QoQ 1.45 %
Debt To Assets YoY 5.701 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.519
mean: 0.257
median: 0.251
low: 0.188
MT: 0.139
 Debt To Equity 0.248
Debt To Equity QoQ 0.69 %
Debt To Equity YoY 5.373 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.422
mean: 0.566
median: 0.458
low: 0.285
MT: 0.248
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.774
Price To Book QoQ 18.074 %
Price To Book YoY 85.588 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 21.667
mean: 4.75
median: 2.863
MT: 0.774
low: 0.144
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 74.792
Price To Earnings QoQ 37.195 %
Price To Earnings YoY 177.533 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 146.202
mean: 90.195
MT: 74.792
median: 65.353
low: -25.413
 PE/G Ratio -5.847
 Price To Sales (P/S) 2.762
Price To Sales QoQ 15.888 %
Price To Sales YoY 91.511 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 24.074
mean: 8.92
median: 5.042
MT: 2.762
low: 0.0
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 31.062
Forward PE/G -2.428
Forward P/S 4.847
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 41.129
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.158
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.51 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -3.611 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.591
mean: 0.247
median: 0.226
MT: 0.158
low: 0.106
 Receivables Turnover 4.064
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 8.323 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 2.764 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA MT: 4.064
high: 4.005
mean: 2.125
median: 1.724
low: 1.263
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 22.451
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 22.451
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -2.69 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 142.387
mean: 102.097
median: 91.92
low: 84.546
MT: 22.451
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.822
 CapEx To Revenue -0.082
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.697
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 66.1 B
 Net Invested Capital 68.9 B
 Invested Capital 68.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets 49.7 B
 Net Working Capital 8.5 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.198
 Current Ratio 1.386
Current Ratio QoQ 1.95 %
Current Ratio YoY 2.729 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 6.161
mean: 3.463
median: 3.13
MT: 1.386
low: 1.11
 Quick Ratio 0.536
Quick Ratio QoQ 0.394 %
Quick Ratio YoY -7.869 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.242
mean: 1.525
median: 1.33
low: 0.638
MT: 0.536
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 8.557
 Cost Of Debt 0.796 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 6.391
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 553.147 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -70.475 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 46.56
mean: 17.596
median: 16.439
MT: 6.391
low: -5.812
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.007
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 5.044
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.198
 Dividend Rate 0.15
 Dividend Yield 0.003
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.58 %
 Revenue Growth 3.246 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -292.185 %
Revenue Growth YoY 468.476 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 17.916 %
median: 11.47 %
mean: 9.499 %
MT: 3.246 %
low: -34.747 %
 Earnings Growth -12.791 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -116.939 %
Earnings Growth YoY -112.791 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 115.0 %
mean: 40.373 %
median: 18.884 %
MT: -12.791 %
low: -43.75 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin
Gross Margin QoQ
Gross Margin YoY
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin 5.499 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 126.203 %
EBIT Margin YoY -21.678 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 23.019 %
mean: 13.477 %
median: 10.743 %
MT: 5.499 %
low: -3.23 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 4.872 %
Return On Sales QoQ -139.642 %
Return On Sales YoY -30.608 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 22.982 %
mean: 12.971 %
median: 11.147 %
MT: 4.872 %
low: -4.328 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -1.28 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield -2.998 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -161.196 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -51.559 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.67 %
median: 0.366 %
mean: -0.199 %
MT: -2.998 %
low: -8.227 %
 Free Cash Growth -173.227 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -62.315 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -12.93 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 211.765 %
mean: -44.594 %
median: -67.279 %
low: -148.276 %
MT: -173.227 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -2.226
 Cash Flow Margin -1.055 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -0.283
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.587 %
Return On Assets QoQ 226.111 %
Return On Assets YoY -34.045 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.887 %
median: 2.435 %
mean: 2.265 %
MT: 0.587 %
low: -1.181 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.115 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.01
Return On Equity QoQ 220.615 %
Return On Equity YoY -33.715 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.134
median: 0.044
mean: 0.041
MT: 0.01
low: -0.048
 DuPont ROE 1.049 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.0 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 132.019 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 1.42 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 5.351 %
median: 3.187 %
mean: 3.186 %
MT: 1.0 %
low: -0.862 %

Six-Week Outlook

Short‑term momentum exhibits bullish characteristics: MACD above its signal line, a neutral RSI rebound, price above short‑term EMAs, and a close near the upper Bollinger band. Low ADX and opposing directional indicators suggest moves may occur in range extensions rather than a sustained trend. Fundamental headwinds—negative free cash flow and elevated debt‑to‑EBITDA—limit conviction for a multi‑week breakout while the WMDST valuation flags over‑valuation. Expect price action to test resistance near the recent high and the price target mean of $76.91; failure to gather volume could force consolidation toward the supertrend support at $62.25. Monitor changes in cash‑flow metrics or material news on buybacks and shipments for catalysts that would alter this outlook.

About ArcelorMittal

ArcelorMittal S.A. (NYSE:MT) designs and manufactures a wide array of steel products and conducts mining operations on a global scale. With a significant presence in the United States, Europe, and other international markets, ArcelorMittal produces semi-finished and finished flat products such as slabs, plates, and coils, as well as long products like bars, wire-rods, and structural sections. The company also manufactures seamless and welded pipes and tubes. In addition to its steel production, ArcelorMittal engages in mining activities, extracting iron ore and coking coal from regions including Brazil, Bosnia, Canada, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine. These resources support its steel manufacturing processes and are also sold to a diverse customer base. ArcelorMittal’s products serve various industries, including automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery. The company utilizes a centralized marketing organization and distribution network to reach its clients effectively. Headquartered in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg, ArcelorMittal continues to play a crucial role in the global steel and mining sectors since its founding in 1976.



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