The Carlyle Group Inc (NASDAQ:CG) Prepares Capital Recalibration With Near-Term Growth Focus

The Carlyle Group Inc (NASDAQ:CG) shows mixed technical momentum while fundamentals and WMDST valuation point toward overvaluation; near-term activity should center on deleveraging and cash-flow stabilization.

Recent News

On April 30, Carlyle announced A$600 million in preferred-equity financing to support CC Capital’s acquisition of Insignia Financial.

On June 16, Carlyle’s Global Credit platform closed a single-asset continuation vehicle with Content Partners to provide new capital for film and TV projects.

On June 1, Carlyle filed an 8‑K noting the appointment of Kate Heinzelman as General Counsel effective June 29.

On June 24, the firm published a climate-risk framework describing integration of climate considerations across investment platforms.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX / DI+ / DI-): ADX at 13.12 signals no strong market trend; DI+ registered 25.41 with a peak-and-reversal (bearish) and DI- registered 23.75 with a dip-and-reversal (bearish). Together these readings imply momentum recently favored downside pressure rather than a sustained trend, weighing against an immediate bullish re-rating.

MACD and momentum: MACD sits at 0.04 above its signal line at -0.12, which reflects a recent bullish crossover; however, the MACD trend shows a peak-and-reversal (bearish momentum). The coexistence of a bullish crossover and a peak reversal signals short-lived bullish impulses inside a weakening momentum backdrop.

MRO (momentum/regression oscillator): MRO at -16.38 indicates price sits below model target and therefore carries potential to increase toward target levels; the negative value implies upward potential, but the magnitude suggests moderate strength rather than an extreme move.

RSI and EMAs: RSI at 48.34 with a peak-and-reversal indicates declining relative strength from recent highs. Price closed at $44.41, below the 200‑day average of $51.67 and marginally below the 20‑ and 50‑day averages (~$44.73), aligning short-term momentum with the broader, longer-term weakness signaled by the moving averages.

Price structure and volatility: Price sits slightly above the lower 1σ Bollinger band ($43.62), with 52‑week range $39.60–$68.44 and a 12‑week return of -6%. Short-term volatility looks muted relative to the year window, while the 42‑day beta (0.89) and 52‑week beta (1.55) highlight lower recent sensitivity to market moves but greater historical sensitivity over the full year.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings and cash flow: Reported EPS of $0.89 missed the $0.92 estimate by $0.03, an EPS surprise of -3.26%. Net income totaled -$132,200,000 for the period, and free cash flow reached -$1,270,500,000, producing a free cash flow yield of -6.94%. Cash from operations remained negative at -$1,242,400,000, and operating cash flow change (cashFlowDelta) showed a -$290,900,000 swing.

Profitability and returns: Return on equity sits at -2.45% and return on assets at -0.45%, reflecting near-term earnings pressure. Earnings growth reads -11.88% while QoQ earnings contracted steeply (-328.13% QoQ) and YoY earnings fell by -149.684% as reported, pointing to a challenging profitability environment this cycle.

Valuation multiples: Trailing PE at 57.20 contrasts with forward PE of 40.21; PE increased YoY by 53.59% while forward PE declined modestly QoQ. Price‑to‑book at 3.39 sits slightly above the industry peer mean of 3.152 (industry peer median 3.216), and P/B moved down QoQ by 8.55% but rose YoY by 23.41%. Price‑to‑sales at 51.97 and a price‑target mean of $39.56—below the current $44.41 close—underscore valuation tension.

Balance sheet and leverage: Total assets reached $29.842 billion with total debt $14.617 billion and net debt $11.396 billion; debt‑to‑assets at 48.98% and debt‑to‑equity at 270.51% indicate elevated leverage. Debt to capital sits at 73.01% and interest expense totaled $205,000,000, while interest income measured $217,100,000; cost of debt remains low at 1.136% but leverage magnifies sensitivity to cash‑flow pressure.

Operational and growth metrics: Asset growth measured 2.49%, but revenue growth shows divergent signals: reported revenue growth metric reads -64.61% while the revenue growth year‑over‑year value reports 375.51%; asset turnover at 0.01196 declined QoQ by 66.27% and YoY by 57.65%, indicating lower revenue generation per asset base in the latest periods.

Dividends and capital returns: Dividend rate $0.35127 and yield 0.69% persisted while dividend payout and coverage ratios sit negative, reflecting that dividend cash outflows exceeded covered earnings in the period reported.

Valuation conclusion: WMDST values the stock as over‑valued. High trailing multiples, negative free cash flow, negative net income, and elevated leverage create a valuation profile that requires improving cash conversion and profitability to justify current market pricing.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-07
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-06
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 2.0 B
 Operating Cash Flow -1.24 B
 Capital Expenditures -28.10 M
 Change In Working Capital 308.0 M
 Dividends Paid -126.40 M
 Cash Flow Delta -290.90 M
 End Period Cash Flow 1.7 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 352.5 M
 Forward Revenue -305.53 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue
 Depreciation 50.5 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 50.5 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit
 EBITDA
 EBIT
 Operating Income
 Interest Income 217.1 M
 Interest Expense 205.0 M
 Net Interest Income 12.1 M
 Income Before Tax -179.00 M
 Tax Provision -37.10 M
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income -132.20 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -141.90 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.92
 EPS Actual 0.89
 EPS Difference -0.03
 EPS Surprise -3.261 %
 Forward EPS 1.27
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 29.8 B
 Intangible Assets 473.6 M
 Net Tangible Assets 4.9 B
 Total Current Assets
 Cash and Short-Term Investments
 Cash 2.8 B
 Net Receivables
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities
 Net Debt 11.4 B
 Total Debt 14.6 B
 Total Liabilities 22.5 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 5.4 B
 Retained Earnings 1.2 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 15.02
 Shares Outstanding 359.839 M
 Revenue Per-Share 0.98
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 18.3 B
 Enterprise Value 32.9 B
 Enterprise Multiple
Enterprise Multiple QoQ
Enterprise Multiple YoY
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA
 EV/R 93.435
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 5.523
 Asset To Liability 1.328
 Debt To Capital 0.73
 Debt To Assets 0.49
Debt To Assets QoQ 2.651 %
Debt To Assets YoY 12.846 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.674
CG: 0.49
median: 0.211
mean: 0.197
low: 0.0
 Debt To Equity 2.705
Debt To Equity QoQ 12.181 %
Debt To Equity YoY 44.255 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.986
CG: 2.705
mean: 1.751
median: 0.969
low: -1.068
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 3.39
Price To Book QoQ -8.554 %
Price To Book YoY 23.407 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 7.056
CG: 3.39
median: 3.216
mean: 3.152
low: -0.507
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 57.2
Price To Earnings QoQ -3.339 %
Price To Earnings YoY 53.587 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 131.673
mean: 62.581
CG: 57.2
median: 56.13
low: -114.937
 PE/G Ratio -4.814
 Price To Sales (P/S) 51.968
Price To Sales QoQ 142.329 %
Price To Sales YoY 126.06 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 89.649
CG: 51.968
mean: 26.131
median: 21.141
low: -50.338
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 40.205
Forward PE/G -3.384
Forward P/S -58.322
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.012
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -66.272 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -57.649 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.275
mean: 0.037
median: 0.013
CG: 0.012
low: -0.147
 Receivables Turnover
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 21.416
CG: 0
mean: -7.954
median: -13.519
low: -13.798
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio
 CapEx To Revenue -0.08
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.556
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 19.6 B
 Net Invested Capital 19.6 B
 Invested Capital 19.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets 4.9 B
 Net Working Capital
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio
 Current Ratio
Current Ratio QoQ
Current Ratio YoY
Current Ratio IPRWA
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA
 Cost Of Debt 1.136 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio -1.046
 Dividend Payout Ratio -0.956
 Dividend Rate 0.35
 Dividend Yield 0.007
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.493 %
 Revenue Growth -64.608 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -187.662 %
Revenue Growth YoY 375.513 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 130.559 %
median: -1.879 %
mean: -2.867 %
CG: -64.608 %
low: -156.276 %
 Earnings Growth -11.881 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -328.13 %
Earnings Growth YoY -149.684 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 45.0 %
median: 9.091 %
mean: -0.151 %
CG: -11.881 %
low: -132.432 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin
Gross Margin QoQ
Gross Margin YoY
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin
EBIT Margin QoQ
EBIT Margin YoY
EBIT Margin IPRWA
 Return On Sales (ROS)
Return On Sales QoQ
Return On Sales YoY
Return On Sales IPRWA
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -1.27 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield -6.935 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 19.734 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 188.118 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 29.426 %
median: 0.626 %
mean: -1.545 %
CG: -6.935 %
low: -27.411 %
 Free Cash Growth 2.7 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -105.091 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -195.779 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 314.536 %
median: 8.623 %
CG: 2.7 %
mean: -1.088 %
low: -569.703 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 9.61
 Cash Flow Margin -23.177 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.618
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) -0.448 %
Return On Assets QoQ -135.137 %
Return On Assets YoY -181.307 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.815 %
mean: 0.826 %
median: 0.371 %
CG: -0.448 %
low: -7.04 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.024
Return On Equity QoQ -139.372 %
Return On Equity YoY -204.976 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.222
median: 0.052
mean: 0.049
CG: -0.024
low: -0.194
 DuPont ROE -2.369 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC)
Return On Invested Capital QoQ
Return On Invested Capital YoY
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA

Six-Week Outlook

Near term, technical momentum points to mixed intraday bounces inside a non‑trending market: directional indicators and RSI weakness favor downside bias, yet MRO’s negative reading and the recent MACD crossover allow for counter‑trend rallies. Volatility likely stays muted relative to the prior year but any catalyst tied to credit flows, fund‑level realizations, or material cash‑flow improvements could re‑accelerate moves.

With leverage elevated and free cash flow negative, market focus should center on signs of cash‑flow stabilization and any corporate actions that reduce net debt or shore up distributable cash. Expect trading to hinge on discrete operational updates or asset‑level monetizations rather than steady organic re‑rating over the six‑week horizon.

About The Carlyle Group Inc.

The Carlyle Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CG) commands a prominent presence in the global investment landscape, leveraging a diverse and strategic approach to finance. Carlyle crafts a wide array of financial strategies, including leveraged buyouts, growth capital, and venture financing. The firm navigates complex financial environments with expertise in areas such as structured credit, distressed opportunities, and corporate finance. Carlyle’s extensive investment portfolio spans four primary segments: Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions. This diversified methodology enables Carlyle to allocate resources across various sectors, including industrials, energy, healthcare, technology, consumer goods, and telecommunications. The firm places particular emphasis on emerging sectors like fintech, aerospace, and renewable energy, reflecting its commitment to innovation and growth. By maintaining a keen awareness of market trends and opportunities, Carlyle fosters growth and innovation within its portfolio companies. Its global reach and deep industry expertise position the firm as a leader in the investment community, consistently driving value creation for investors and stakeholders. Carlyle’s strategic investments and financial proficiency underscore its formidable influence in the realm of global finance.



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