Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE:AR) Generates Strong Cash Flow, Signals Near-Term Upside

Robust free cash generation and compressing valuation combine with improving technical momentum to create a constructive near-term posture. Balance-sheet leverage and below-average liquidity remain the primary fundamental constraints to monitor.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators: ADX at 17.71 indicates no established trend strength. DI+ shows a dip-and-reversal at 16.06, which signals a bullish directional shift; DI- decreasing at 19.83 also aligns with that shift. The combination implies directional bias has turned mildly constructive, but ADX warns the move lacks trend conviction.

MACD: MACD at -0.30 has completed a dip-and-reversal and sits above its signal line (-0.44), a bullish momentum confirmation that supports a near-term recovery in price momentum versus the recent consolidation.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO = -20.41 (negative) signals the current price sits below the model target and therefore carries potential upside pressure as the price seeks catch-up; the MRO’s dip-and-reversal characteristic reinforces a short-term push higher.

RSI and short-term strength: RSI at 46.38 with a dip-and-reversal indicates a rebound from weaker readings into a neutral band, consistent with a constructive short-term momentum backdrop without overextension.

Price vs averages and bands: Last close $35.07 sits above the 20-day average $34.17 and the 12-day EMA $34.27 (EMA trending up on a dip-and-reversal), supporting short-term strength. Price remains slightly below the 200-day average $35.62, so longer-term trend pressure persists. Price near the 1x Bollinger upper band ($35.00) shows short-term stretch toward overhead resistance while remaining below the 2x upper band ($35.83).

Volatility and correlation: 42-day beta = -0.46 and 52-week beta = -0.06 indicate low or negative market correlation, which can mute broad-market-driven moves and make idiosyncratic momentum more relevant.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: Total revenue $1,862,647,000 with EBIT $730,684,000 yields an EBIT margin of 39.23%. That margin exceeds the industry peer mean of 32.18% and closely tracks the industry peer median of 38.78%, while remaining well below the peer high of 87.67%. Operating margin sits at 35.51%, consistent with the company’s reported operating leverage and improved cost absorption QoQ.

Growth rates: Revenue growth shows strong recent acceleration: reported revenue growth of 45.12% (aggregate) with revenue growth YoY = 113.34% and QoQ = 240.94%. Earnings growth YoY = 147.90% while earnings growth QoQ slowed (-49.34%), indicating a volatile cadence to quarterly profitability despite large year-over-year gains.

Cash flow and capital allocation: Operating cash flow $859,058,000 and free cash flow $829,877,000 produce a free cash flow yield of 7.05%, materially above the industry peer mean of 1.58%. Free cash growth YoY = 139.54% while QoQ shows a pullback (-81.22%), underscoring seasonality or timing effects but leaving the company with strong absolute FCF dollars.

Leverage and liquidity: Net debt $2,664,797,000 and debt-to-EBITDA ~5.06x indicate meaningful leverage relative to cash flow. Debt-to-assets at 30.95% sits above the industry peer mean (18.26%) and median (15.56%) but below the peer high (41.91%). Interest coverage near 19.77x provides ample earnings buffer for interest costs, though current ratio at 0.40 signals limited near-term liquidity versus the industry peer mean of 1.68.

Valuation context: Price-to-earnings is 33.04, below the industry peer mean of 42.90 and median of 38.45. Enterprise multiple registers 17.62, below the industry peer mean of 19.81 and median of 19.56. The combination of a higher-than-peer free cash flow yield and a below-peer enterprise multiple supports the present WMDST determination that the stock is under-valued.

Earnings and forward view: Reported EPS $1.15 versus estimate $1.14 produced a surprise of roughly 0.88%. Forward EPS ~ $1.05 and forward P/E ~ 32.41 indicate modest compression relative to trailing multiples; forward PEG sits near 0.38, reflecting expected earnings growth embedded in current price.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-29
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 210.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 859.1 M
 Capital Expenditures -29.18 M
 Change In Working Capital 179.9 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta
 End Period Cash Flow
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 1.9 B
 Forward Revenue 283.1 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.1 B
 Depreciation
 Depreciation and Amortization
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 1.2 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 741.8 M
 EBITDA 938.0 M
 EBIT 730.7 M
 Operating Income 661.5 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 37.0 M
 Net Interest Income -36.96 M
 Income Before Tax 693.7 M
 Tax Provision 145.5 M
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income 535.2 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 548.2 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.14
 EPS Actual 1.15
 EPS Difference 0.01
 EPS Surprise 0.877 %
 Forward EPS 1.05
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 15.3 B
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 8.1 B
 Total Current Assets 677.9 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments
 Cash
 Net Receivables 32.4 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 68.1 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 78.0 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 1.7 B
 Net Debt 2.7 B
 Total Debt 4.8 B
 Total Liabilities 7.1 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 8.1 B
 Retained Earnings 2.2 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 26.02
 Shares Outstanding 309.825 M
 Revenue Per-Share 6.01
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 11.8 B
 Enterprise Value 16.5 B
 Enterprise Multiple 17.616
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -39.25 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -43.274 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 123.054
mean: 19.807
median: 19.556
AR: 17.616
low: -605.856
 EV/R 8.871
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.904
 Asset To Liability 2.154
 Debt To Capital 0.371
 Debt To Assets 0.309
Debt To Assets QoQ 16.248 %
Debt To Assets YoY 6.084 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.419
AR: 0.309
mean: 0.183
median: 0.156
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 0.589
Debt To Equity QoQ 26.154 %
Debt To Equity YoY 11.712 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.275
AR: 0.589
mean: 0.349
median: 0.269
low: -1.113
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.46
Price To Book QoQ 5.203 %
Price To Book YoY -6.228 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 14.381
median: 2.269
mean: 2.112
AR: 1.46
low: -0.213
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 33.043
Price To Earnings QoQ -58.173 %
Price To Earnings YoY -28.7 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 128.629
mean: 42.895
median: 38.452
AR: 33.043
low: 22.342
 PE/G Ratio 0.387
 Price To Sales (P/S) 6.321
Price To Sales QoQ -22.59 %
Price To Sales YoY -21.689 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 165.408
median: 10.377
mean: 10.145
AR: 6.321
low: 2.831
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 32.406
Forward PE/G 0.379
Forward P/S 37.493
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3.273
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.13
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 32.749 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 21.894 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.234
AR: 0.13
median: 0.129
mean: 0.123
low: 0.001
 Receivables Turnover 56.255
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 55.421 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 51.076 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA AR: 56.255
high: 2.885
mean: 2.158
median: 2.153
low: 0.956
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 1.622
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -4.124
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 51.085 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 47.229 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 61.127
AR: -4.124
mean: -25.482
median: -38.485
low: -56.714
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -1.835
 CapEx To Revenue -0.016
 CapEx To Depreciation
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 10.7 B
 Net Invested Capital 10.7 B
 Invested Capital 10.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets 8.1 B
 Net Working Capital -1.02 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio
 Current Ratio 0.4
Current Ratio QoQ -27.636 %
Current Ratio YoY 3.468 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 16.613
median: 1.716
mean: 1.682
AR: 0.4
low: 0.019
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 5.065
 Cost Of Debt 0.706 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 19.768
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 48.283 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 55.412 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 194.65
median: 39.712
mean: 30.029
AR: 19.768
low: -29.033
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.507
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 5.746
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 15.885 %
 Revenue Growth 45.123 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 240.937 %
Revenue Growth YoY 113.337 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 72.732 %
AR: 45.123 %
mean: 21.222 %
median: 19.547 %
low: -63.35 %
 Earnings Growth 85.484 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -49.343 %
Earnings Growth YoY 147.902 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 256.25 %
AR: 85.484 %
mean: 56.15 %
median: 50.22 %
low: -90.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 39.824 %
Gross Margin QoQ 88.436 %
Gross Margin YoY 31.437 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 83.151 %
median: 65.833 %
mean: 59.537 %
AR: 39.824 %
low: 3.834 %
 EBIT Margin 39.228 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 70.675 %
EBIT Margin YoY 83.789 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 87.67 %
AR: 39.228 %
median: 38.784 %
mean: 32.176 %
low: -56.023 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 35.512 %
Return On Sales QoQ 120.12 %
Return On Sales YoY 66.379 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 87.67 %
median: 36.89 %
mean: 36.179 %
AR: 35.512 %
low: -33.573 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 829.9 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 7.049 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 132.257 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 85.647 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA AR: 7.049 %
high: 5.495 %
median: 1.885 %
mean: 1.578 %
low: -7.812 %
 Free Cash Growth 160.94 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -81.218 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 139.537 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 415.69 %
AR: 160.94 %
mean: 45.965 %
median: 38.14 %
low: -318.023 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.551
 Cash Flow Margin 30.333 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.605
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 3.743 %
Return On Assets QoQ 152.735 %
Return On Assets YoY 134.524 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 13.756 %
median: 3.765 %
AR: 3.743 %
mean: 3.052 %
low: -13.451 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 5.351 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.066
Return On Equity QoQ 158.791 %
Return On Equity YoY 130.406 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.237
AR: 0.066
median: 0.064
mean: 0.052
low: -0.188
 DuPont ROE 6.856 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 5.382 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 119.584 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 92.146 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 6.716 %
AR: 5.382 %
median: 5.23 %
mean: 4.214 %
low: -26.279 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term technical bias: modestly constructive. Multiple short-term momentum signals — MACD crossing above its signal, DI+ dip-and-reversal, and an improving RSI — favor additional follow-through toward recent resistance levels, but ADX under 20 signals any advance may remain range-limited unless trend strength confirms. MRO negative implies room for mean reversion upward toward the model target.

Key intraday reference points for swing horizon: short-term support aligns with the 20-day average near $34.17 and the 12-day EMA near $34.27; overhead technical caps cluster around the super trend upper at $35.68 and the nearer Bollinger upper bands. Expect volatility to remain muted (42-day volatility ~ 2%), with idiosyncratic moves driven more by company cash-flow updates and balance-sheet news than by broad markets given negative beta readings.

Overall, fundamentals show strong cash generation and margin performance that support a valuation described by WMDST as under-valued, while technical indicators present a guardedly bullish short-term setup that requires confirmation of trend strength before a more durable advance materializes.

About Antero Resources Corporation

Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE:AR) focuses on the exploration and production of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) within the energy sector. Established in 2002 and headquartered in Denver, Colorado, Antero Resources has developed a significant presence in the Appalachian Basin, managing a substantial portfolio of approximately 515,000 net acres. The company’s operations emphasize the Upper Devonian Shale, reflecting its dedication to tapping into unconventional resource potential. Antero Resources divides its operations into three primary segments: Exploration and Development, Marketing, and its Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream. This structure facilitates efficient management of its extensive infrastructure, which includes 631 miles of gas gathering pipelines. By incorporating advanced technologies and emphasizing sustainable practices, Antero Resources aims to deliver dependable energy solutions while reducing environmental impact. Antero Resources remains focused on identifying growth opportunities and adapting to the evolving energy market. Its strategic investments and commitment to operational excellence position the company as a prominent entity in the independent oil and natural gas industry, contributing to energy security and delivering long-term value to its stakeholders.



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