GXO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:GXO) Shows Near-Term Bullish Momentum Against Overvalued WMDST Valuation

GXO displays a tactical uptick in momentum indicators while fundamentals show margin compression and cash-flow stress; technicals suggest a short window for price appreciation, but valuation and leverage constrain sustainable upside.

Recent News

On June 10, 2026 GXO signed a multi-year agreement to manage L’Oréal logistics across Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary, expanding its European consumer‑goods footprint and capacity for higher-value beauty logistics services.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 15.19 indicates no dominant trend; that weak trend strength implies near-term directional signals carry limited follow-through relative to clear trending regimes.

DI+ registers 20.46 with a peak‑and‑reversal pattern, a bearish directional shift, while DI‑ sits at 24.56 and is decreasing—the latter signals reduced downside pressure; together these directional indicators suggest short-term tug‑of‑war between fading upside momentum and easing selling pressure, reducing conviction for large moves.

MACD stands at −0.42, with the MACD line above the signal (MACD signal −0.62) and the MACD trend increasing; the MACD crossover above its signal line constitutes a bullish momentum signal that supports near‑term upside attempts despite the low ADX.

MRO at −15.83 places price below the modeled target and implies upward potential toward that target; the MRO peak‑and‑reversal pattern indicates that potential has recently moderated but remains present for a corrective advance toward fairer technical value.

RSI at 47.37 with a dip‑and‑reversal pattern produces a bullish short‑term bias as the indicator recovers from lower levels; the RSI recovery aligns with the MACD crossover and supports a modest near‑term price lift rather than a strong trend acceleration.

Price sits near the 20‑day average ($49.33) and below the 200‑day average ($53.69); the 12‑day EMA shows a peak‑and‑reversal, signaling pressure at shorter EMAs even as price activity attempts to hold above short moving averages. Volume today (2,449,570) exceeds both the 10‑day and 50‑day averages, indicating the current moves attract above‑average participation and therefore warrant monitoring for follow‑through.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue for the period measures $3,298,000,000 with revenue growth of −5.96% (QoQ decline sharp at −280.66% on the quarter metric and YoY decline of −29.05%), reflecting contracting top‑line activity across recent periods. Operating margin stands at 2.395% and EBIT margin at 1.819%; the EBIT margin declined by −1.835% QoQ and by −208.27% YoY, signaling significant margin compression year over year. These margin moves reduce headroom against the current valuation.

EPS actual $0.50 beat the estimate of $0.37, producing a positive EPS surprise of 35.14%; reported earnings growth shows 35.14% on the immediate measure, while the earnings growth YoY figure reports −149.49%, indicating volatile earnings comparatives across periods. Operating cash flow sits at $31,000,000 with free cash flow at −$34,000,000 and free cash flow yield at −0.531%, demonstrating negative free cash conversion despite a positive net income headline. WMDST valuation classifies the stock as over‑valued given these cash‑flow dynamics.

Balance sheet and leverage reflect elevated leverage: total debt $5,960,000,000, net debt $2,315,000,000, debt‑to‑equity 200.81% and debt‑to‑EBITDA ~34.06x, while the interest coverage ratio registers 1.40x—well below the industry peer mean interest‑coverage and indicating limited interest‑expense cushion. Cash and short‑term investments $794,000,000 provide liquidity but the cash ratio at 0.21 and negative free cash flow reduce flexibility for capex or aggressive share‑holder returns.

Valuation multiples show a stretched P/E of 111.40 and enterprise multiple 66.13, while the P/B at 2.16 remains below the industry peer mean of 5.16 and industry peer median of 4.64. Forward PE of 64.04 and forward EPS of $0.88 imply earnings growth expectations that the current cash‑flow and margin trajectory may not sustainably support. WMDST values the stock as over‑valued given the combination of weak cash conversion, high leverage, and elevated trailing multiples.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-04
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 857.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 31.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -65.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -98.00 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -60.00 M
 End Period Cash Flow 797.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 3.3 B
 Forward Revenue 20.8 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 2.9 B
 Depreciation 86.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 115.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 3.2 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 375.0 M
 EBITDA 175.0 M
 EBIT 60.0 M
 Operating Income 79.0 M
 Interest Income 11.0 M
 Interest Expense 43.0 M
 Net Interest Income -32.00 M
 Income Before Tax 17.0 M
 Tax Provision 12.0 M
 Tax Rate 40.0 %
 Net Income 4.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 5.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.37
 EPS Actual 0.50
 EPS Difference 0.13
 EPS Surprise 35.135 %
 Forward EPS 0.88
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 12.2 B
 Intangible Assets 4.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets -1.63 B
 Total Current Assets 3.2 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 794.0 M
 Cash 794.0 M
 Net Receivables 2.0 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 577.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 713.0 M
 Short-Term Debt 463.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 3.8 B
 Net Debt 2.3 B
 Total Debt 6.0 B
 Total Liabilities 9.2 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.0 B
 Retained Earnings 722.0 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 25.80
 Shares Outstanding 115.024 M
 Revenue Per-Share 28.67
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 6.4 B
 Enterprise Value 11.6 B
 Enterprise Multiple 66.13
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 8.394 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -59.128 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 165.912
mean: 98.418
median: 87.45
GXO: 66.13
low: -14.548
 EV/R 3.509
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 4.108
 Asset To Liability 1.327
 Debt To Capital 0.668
 Debt To Assets 0.489
Debt To Assets QoQ 2.377 %
Debt To Assets YoY 4.233 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.798
GXO: 0.489
mean: 0.224
median: 0.223
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 2.008
Debt To Equity QoQ 2.326 %
Debt To Equity YoY 8.555 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.05
GXO: 2.008
mean: 0.844
median: 0.351
low: 0.001
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.159
Price To Book QoQ 2.425 %
Price To Book YoY 36.905 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 12.508
mean: 5.165
median: 4.642
GXO: 2.159
low: 0.301
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 111.398
Price To Earnings QoQ -24.922 %
Price To Earnings YoY -16.427 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 316.07
GXO: 111.398
median: 64.563
mean: 56.425
low: -182.473
 PE/G Ratio 3.171
 Price To Sales (P/S) 1.943
Price To Sales QoQ 8.368 %
Price To Sales YoY 27.8 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 14.072
mean: 4.507
median: 4.151
GXO: 1.943
low: 1.148
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 64.037
Forward PE/G 1.823
Forward P/S 0.311
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 1.291
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.27
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -7.064 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 2.322 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.78
GXO: 0.27
median: 0.256
mean: 0.225
low: 0.019
 Receivables Turnover 1.629
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -6.075 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 1.095 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 4.189
median: 2.003
mean: 1.898
GXO: 1.629
low: 1.167
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 56.001
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 34.224
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 4.775 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 38.095
GXO: 34.224
mean: 7.694
median: -0.59
low: -195.547
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -5.848
 CapEx To Revenue -0.02
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.756
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 5.6 B
 Net Invested Capital 6.1 B
 Invested Capital 6.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets -1.63 B
 Net Working Capital -564.00 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.21
 Current Ratio 0.851
Current Ratio QoQ 0.245 %
Current Ratio YoY 9.035 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 1.877
median: 1.474
mean: 1.367
GXO: 0.851
low: 0.678
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 34.057
 Cost Of Debt 0.437 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 1.395
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -102.147 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -220.0 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 54.46
mean: 13.556
median: 11.851
GXO: 1.395
low: -4.444
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.022
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 21.776
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -0.555 %
 Revenue Growth -5.96 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -280.661 %
Revenue Growth YoY -29.048 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 4.227 %
GXO: -5.96 %
mean: -6.743 %
median: -10.782 %
low: -13.387 %
 Earnings Growth 35.135 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -166.087 %
Earnings Growth YoY -149.486 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 65.714 %
GXO: 35.135 %
median: 13.861 %
mean: -3.128 %
low: -188.889 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 11.371 %
Gross Margin QoQ -6.172 %
Gross Margin YoY 9.2 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 24.357 %
mean: 16.864 %
median: 15.843 %
GXO: 11.371 %
low: 5.035 %
 EBIT Margin 1.819 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -1.835 %
EBIT Margin YoY -208.274 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 35.317 %
mean: 18.892 %
median: 8.445 %
GXO: 1.819 %
low: -2.807 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 2.395 %
Return On Sales QoQ -38.684 %
Return On Sales YoY -242.56 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 18.776 %
mean: 7.394 %
median: 6.729 %
GXO: 2.395 %
low: -1.333 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -34.00 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -0.531 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -129.032 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -50.97 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 5.806 %
mean: 1.025 %
median: 0.843 %
GXO: -0.531 %
low: -4.449 %
 Free Cash Growth -129.565 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -522.283 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -18.898 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 166.667 %
mean: -48.886 %
median: -53.867 %
GXO: -129.565 %
low: -250.914 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -8.5
 Cash Flow Margin 2.486 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 20.5
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.033 %
Return On Assets QoQ -90.73 %
Return On Assets YoY -103.882 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.746 %
median: 2.223 %
mean: 1.854 %
GXO: 0.033 %
low: -1.268 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 0.713 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.001
Return On Equity QoQ -90.638 %
Return On Equity YoY -104.036 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.101
mean: 0.04
median: 0.035
GXO: 0.001
low: -0.024
 DuPont ROE 0.134 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 0.592 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -15.429 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -183.734 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 9.693 %
mean: 2.75 %
median: 2.452 %
GXO: 0.592 %
low: -1.502 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near‑term bias: modestly bullish directional momentum. Short‑term technical signals (MACD crossover, RSI recovery, and negative MRO signaling upside toward a target) create a window for a corrective rally over the next six weeks, especially if volume sustains above short‑term averages. However, ADX below 20 and contrasting DI behaviors limit the odds of a sustained trending breakout.

Macro and fundamental constraints: margin deterioration, negative free cash flow, and high leverage cap how far any technical advance can extend before fundamentals reassert. Watch for a sustained rise in ADX above 20 with concurrent MACD strength to confirm trend strengthening; conversely, renewed widening of DI− or a MACD re‑cross below its signal would signal loss of near‑term momentum.

Key items to monitor: operating cash flow and free cash flow trajectory, interest coverage improvements, any material contract announcements that affect revenue visibility (such as the recent L’Oréal agreement), and whether volume continues above 10‑ and 50‑day averages to validate momentum. Given WMDST’s over‑valued classification, any price gains over the next six weeks likely remain tactical and constrained unless fundamentals (cash conversion and leverage) meaningfully improve.

About GXO Logistics, Inc.

GXO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:GXO) delivers advanced logistics solutions designed to enhance supply chain efficiency and innovation. Based in Greenwich, Connecticut, GXO offers a comprehensive suite of services, including warehousing, distribution, order fulfillment, e-commerce, and reverse logistics. The company operates approximately 974 facilities globally, managing intricate logistics requirements for a varied clientele. GXO serves multiple sectors, addressing the needs of industries such as e-commerce, omnichannel retail, technology, consumer electronics, food and beverage, industrial manufacturing, and consumer packaged goods. Since its inception in 2021, GXO has quickly become a significant entity in the logistics sector, utilizing cutting-edge technology and data analytics to streamline supply chain operations. GXO emphasizes sustainability and innovation, adopting strategic logistics practices that help clients achieve cost reductions, improved efficiency, and superior service levels. By integrating a global reach with localized expertise, GXO Logistics supports businesses in adapting to the dynamic demands of the market, consistently delivering high-quality logistics services.



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