Recent News
On May 26 the company launched the “Good Parts” brand campaign, a multi-channel effort highlighting customer life moments and a new jingle to reinforce ease and confidence. On May 28 Advance unveiled a special “Good Parts” paint scheme to appear on a Team Penske race car at Nashville Superspeedway, extending the campaign into motorsports sponsorship and national promotion.
Technical Analysis
Directional indicators show ambiguity: ADX at 24.43 signals an emerging trend rather than a strong directional impulse; DI+ registers a peak-and-reverse (bearish), while DI– also shows a peak-and-reverse (bullish), producing offsetting directional pressure and short-term price ambiguity that aligns with the consolidation bias noted above.
MACD sits at 1.22 with the MACD line above its 0.83 signal line and the MACD trend labeled dip-and-reversal; that cross and momentum recovery represent a bullish momentum signal that supports short-term strength against longer-term valuation headwinds.
MRO at +14.88 indicates the current price sits above the model target, implying a higher probability of downward reversion from current levels; the positive MRO therefore tempers momentum signals and supports a lower-risk expectation for mean reversion toward fair value.
RSI at 55.15 with a dip-and-reversal describes renewed buying interest without overbought readings; RSI behavior complements the MACD signal but stops short of signaling overextension.
Price relationships reinforce consolidation: the close at $60.80 sits above the 20-day average ($58.53), 50-day average ($56.19) and 200-day average ($52.56), while the 12-day EMA is increasing — evidence of short-term bullish bias contained inside a range. The close also sits about $0.56 (≈0.9%) above the analysts’ mean target of $60.24, leaving little margin for further bullish surprise.
Bollinger context shows the close marginally above the 1x upper band ($60.55) but below the 2x upper band ($62.56), a position consistent with short-term strength that often precedes consolidation or modest pullback. Volume at 1,280,439 trades roughly 31% below the 10-day average (1,861,181), suggesting the recent upward moves lack conviction on higher participation.
Volatility and beta skew lower in the near term: 42-day beta at 0.72 and 42-day volatility at 4% indicate reduced short-term sensitivity versus the 52-week beta of 1.16, supporting a range-bound environment until volume and directional indicators align more clearly.
Fundamental Analysis
Reported EPS of $0.39 missed the estimate of $0.48 by $0.09, an EPS surprise of –18.75%. Trailing P/E stands at 136.92, which exceeds the industry peer mean ($76.48), median ($77.25) and peer range high ($128.60), indicating a valuation premium on trailing earnings. Forward P/E of 53.56 sits below the industry peer mean ($62.55) and median ($72.26), and forward P/E year-over-year shows a decline of approximately 16.67%.
Revenue dynamics show contraction: reported QoQ revenue growth = –100% and YoY revenue growth = –100%, consistent with a material decline in comparable-period top-line activity. Cash-flow margin and cash-flow-to-earnings both read $0.00, indicating no reported positive cash-flow margin in the provided figures. Cost of debt registers low at 0.853%.
Invested capital totals $2,271,000,000. Price-target dispersion runs wide: mean $60.24, high $104.16, low $33.49, leaving the current $60.80 essentially at the consensus mean and far below the high target, which reflects divergent analyst views.
Taken together, high trailing P/E versus subdued forward multiples and negative revenue growth produce valuation tension. The current valuation as determined by WMDST classifies the stock as over-valued, driven by an elevated trailing multiple, limited cash-flow margin, and top-line weakness that reduce the margin for execution risk.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2026-04-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2026-05-21 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-08-20 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | — |
| Operating Cash Flow | — | |
| Capital Expenditures | — | |
| Change In Working Capital | — | |
| Dividends Paid | — | |
| Cash Flow Delta | — | |
| End Period Cash Flow | — | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | — | |
| Forward Revenue | — | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | — | |
| Depreciation | — | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | — | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | — | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | — | |
| EBITDA | — | |
| EBIT | — | |
| Operating Income | — | |
| Interest Income | — | |
| Interest Expense | — | |
| Net Interest Income | — | |
| Income Before Tax | — | |
| Tax Provision | — | |
| Tax Rate | — | |
| Net Income | — | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | — | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 0.48 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 0.39 | |
| EPS Difference | $ -0.09 | |
| EPS Surprise | -18.75 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 1.00 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | — | |
| Intangible Assets | — | |
| Net Tangible Assets | — | |
| Total Current Assets | — | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | — | |
| Cash | — | |
| Net Receivables | — | |
| Inventory | — | |
| Long-Term Investments | — | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | — | |
| Short-Term Debt | — | |
| Total Current Liabilities | — | |
| Net Debt | — | |
| Total Debt | — | |
| Total Liabilities | — | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | — | |
| Retained Earnings | — | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | — | |
| Shares Outstanding | — | |
| Revenue Per-Share | — | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | — |
| Enterprise Value | — | |
| Enterprise Multiple | — | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | — | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | — | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | — | |
| EV/R | — | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | — | |
| Asset To Liability | — | |
| Debt To Capital | — | |
| Debt To Assets | — | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | — | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | — | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | — | |
| Debt To Equity | — | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | — | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | — | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | — | |
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | — | |
| Price To Book QoQ | — | |
| Price To Book YoY | — | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | — | |
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 136.917 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | — | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | 79.177 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | AAP: 136.917 high: 128.603 median: 77.251 mean: 76.481 low: -29.122 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | — | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | — | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | — | |
| Price To Sales YoY | — | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | — | |
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 53.558 | |
| Forward PE/G | — | |
| Forward P/S | — | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | — | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | — | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Receivables Turnover | — | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Inventory Turnover | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | — | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | — | |
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | — | |
| CapEx To Revenue | — | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | — | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | — | |
| Net Invested Capital | — | |
| Invested Capital | $ 2.3 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | — | |
| Net Working Capital | — | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | — | |
| Current Ratio | — | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Current Ratio YoY | — | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Quick Ratio | — | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | — | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | — | |
| Cost Of Debt | 0.853 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | — | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | — | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | — | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Rate | — | |
| Dividend Yield | — | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | — | |
| Revenue Growth | 0.0 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | -100.0 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -100.0 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 13.262 % AAP: 0.0 % mean: -12.735 % median: -17.784 % low: -54.332 % |
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| Earnings Growth | — | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | — | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | — | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | — | |
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | — | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | — | |
| Gross Margin YoY | — | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | — | |
| EBIT Margin | — | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | — | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | — | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | — | |
| Return On Sales (ROS) | — | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | — | |
| Return On Sales YoY | — | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | — | |
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | — | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | — | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | — | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | — | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | — | |
| Free Cash Growth | — | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | — | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | — | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | — | |
| Free Cash To Net Income | — | |
| Cash Flow Margin | 0.0 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 0.0 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | — | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | — | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | — | |
| Return On Assets YoY | — | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | — | |
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | — | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | — | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | — | |
| Return On Equity YoY | — | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | — | |
| DuPont ROE | — | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | — | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | — | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | — | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | — | |