YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF) Strengthens Liquidity And Credit Profile, Positioning For Near-Term Upside

YPF shows improved cash generation and clearer liability management while operational margins and commodity exposure shape a guardedly constructive near-term picture.

Recent News

On March 26, 2026 YPF filed its annual Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, including audited financial statements. On March 27, 2026 a U.S. appeals court overturned a prior $16.1 billion judgment related to earlier nationalization disputes. Earlier, on February 12, 2026 the company announced a joint-development agreement tied to an LNG export initiative and project documentation reflecting early project structuring.

Technical Analysis

The ADX sits at 19.88, below 20, indicating no established trend; momentum appears setup-driven rather than trend-following. DI+ at 28.91 and increasing signals directional buying pressure; DI- peaked and reversed at 22.17, which aligns with reduced downside directional pressure.

MACD reads 0.65 with a signal line at 0.70 and shows a recent dip-and-reversal pattern; momentum moved from lower levels but MACD remains marginally below its signal line, so bullish momentum exists but lacks a confirmed MACD-line crossover.

The Momentum/Regression Oscillator stands at 29.0 (positive), which implies price sits above the short-term target and faces some mean-reversion risk; however the oscillator’s recent dip-and-reversal suggests that downward pressure has lessened and momentum may consolidate near current levels.

RSI at 57.48 and rising indicates constructive buying without overbought extremes. Price closed at $44.81, above the 20-day average ($42.66), 50-day average ($40.68) and 200-day average ($34.87); the 12-day EMA ($43.12) exceeds the 26-day EMA ($42.50) and the 12-day EMA trend increases, supporting a near-term upward bias versus longer-term averages.

Price trades near the upper Bollinger band (upper 1σ = $43.92; upper 2σ = $45.17), implying tighter trading range and elevated short-term volatility. SuperTrend lower support sits at $40.76. Short-term beta is negative over 42 days (-0.96) while 52-week beta at 0.51 shows modest positive sensitivity to the market over the year; daily volume (2,654,991) exceeds the 10-day average (1,962,170) and the 200-day average (2,210,720), indicating above-normal participation on recent moves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $4,544,000,000. YoY revenue growth reads -79.086% and overall revenue growth stands at -2.132% (reported metric), requiring careful interpretation given substantial reported YoY movement. Gross profit reached $1,312,000,000 and gross margin at 28.873%, above the industry peer mean of 21.432%, contributing positively to operating leverage despite lower top-line comparisons.

Operating income $449,000,000 produces an operating margin of 9.881%; this margin essentially matches the industry peer mean of 9.997% (operating margin mean), showing parity on core operations even as operating margin YoY moved -266.684% and QoQ declined by -17.638 percentage points. EBIT equals $606,000,000 and the EBIT margin at 13.336% sits above the industry peer mean of 11.398%; QoQ EBIT margin rose by 3.887% while the YoY EBIT margin change registers -324.966% in the supplied metrics.

Net income recorded a loss of $654,000,000; EPS actual stands at -$1.67 versus an estimate of $0.78, a shortfall of $2.45 or an EPS surprise of -314.103%. Free cash flow measured $318,000,000 with a free cash flow yield of 2.231%, above the industry peer mean of 1.480%, and free cash flow growth of 312.987% in the provided metric—factors that strengthen near-term liquidity despite reported accounting losses.

Leverage and coverage present mixed signals. Total debt $11,152,000,000 gives net debt $9,648,000,000 and debt-to-EBITDA of 8.08x; interest coverage equals 2.85x, below the industry peer mean of 6.16x, while debt-to-equity at 1.031 exceeds the industry peer mean of 0.674. Current ratio sits at 0.87, below the industry peer mean of 1.225, and quick ratio 0.676 below the industry peer mean of 0.902, indicating tighter short-term liquidity cushions versus typical peers despite positive operating cash flow of $1,738,000,000.

Returns remain negative: return on equity at -6.048% and return on assets at -2.217%, though both show recent QoQ improvements (ROE QoQ +234.884%, ROA QoQ +215.363% in the supplied metrics). Capital expenditure amounted to -$1,420,000,000 with capex-to-revenue at -31.25%, reflecting heavy investment into upstream and LNG-related capacity.

Valuation context: WMDST values the stock as under-valued. Market cap totals $14,251,552,348 while enterprise value equals $24,208,552,348; enterprise multiple reads 17.54 and EV-to-revenue (EVR) stands at 5.33. Price-to-book at 1.32 sits below the industry peer mean price-to-book of 1.86, while forward PE sits near 25.55 and forward EPS at $1.56—tension exists between negative trailing earnings and a positive forward earnings profile driven by projected recovery metrics embedded in forward estimates.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-27
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 799.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 1.7 B
 Capital Expenditures -1.42 B
 Change In Working Capital -88.00 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 134.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 933.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 4.5 B
 Forward Revenue -1.06 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 3.2 B
 Depreciation 757.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 774.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 4.1 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 1.3 B
 EBITDA 1.4 B
 EBIT 606.0 M
 Operating Income 449.0 M
 Interest Income 25.0 M
 Interest Expense 213.0 M
 Net Interest Income -249.00 M
 Income Before Tax 393.0 M
 Tax Provision 1.0 B
 Tax Rate 35.0 %
 Net Income -654.00 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -649.00 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.78
 EPS Actual -1.67
 EPS Difference -2.45
 EPS Surprise -314.103 %
 Forward EPS 1.56
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 29.4 B
 Intangible Assets 432.0 M
 Net Tangible Assets 10.4 B
 Total Current Assets 6.5 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.2 B
 Cash 933.0 M
 Net Receivables 2.2 B
 Inventory 1.4 B
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 2.2 B
 Short-Term Debt 2.4 B
 Total Current Liabilities 7.4 B
 Net Debt 9.6 B
 Total Debt 11.2 B
 Total Liabilities 18.4 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 10.8 B
 Retained Earnings -756.00 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 27.56
 Shares Outstanding 392.411 M
 Revenue Per-Share 11.58
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 14.3 B
 Enterprise Value 24.2 B
 Enterprise Multiple 17.542
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -52.498 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -127.534 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 50.173
median: 33.466
mean: 27.354
YPF: 17.542
low: -72.641
 EV/R 5.328
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.722
 Asset To Liability 1.6
 Debt To Capital 0.508
 Debt To Assets 0.379
Debt To Assets QoQ -0.308 %
Debt To Assets YoY 493.483 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.65
YPF: 0.379
mean: 0.212
median: 0.204
low: 0.006
 Debt To Equity 1.031
Debt To Equity QoQ 4.668 %
Debt To Equity YoY 540.534 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.421
YPF: 1.031
mean: 0.674
median: 0.434
low: 0.008
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.318
Price To Book QoQ 27.471 %
Price To Book YoY 6.542 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 4.744
median: 1.895
mean: 1.862
YPF: 1.318
low: -1.67
 Price To Earnings (P/E) -21.747
Price To Earnings QoQ -55.022 %
Price To Earnings YoY -56.091 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 140.369
mean: 65.688
median: 62.75
YPF: -21.747
low: -120.105
 PE/G Ratio -0.128
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.136
Price To Sales QoQ 23.509 %
Price To Sales YoY 3.514 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 39.166
mean: 7.496
median: 6.546
YPF: 3.136
low: -2.28
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 25.55
Forward PE/G 0.151
Forward P/S -15.634
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -0.787
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.154
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -2.839 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -5.868 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.548
median: 0.17
mean: 0.167
YPF: 0.154
low: -0.206
 Receivables Turnover 2.208
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -11.524 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -58.574 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 5.614
YPF: 2.208
mean: 2.157
median: 1.976
low: 0.195
 Inventory Turnover 2.172
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -1.476 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -5.768 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 18.206
mean: 2.972
median: 2.518
YPF: 2.172
low: 0.238
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 41.328
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 19.677
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 90.205 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -243.824 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 120.172
YPF: 19.677
median: 10.799
mean: 2.776
low: -122.473
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -4.704
 CapEx To Revenue -0.312
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.876
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 19.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 21.4 B
 Invested Capital 21.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets 10.4 B
 Net Working Capital -966.00 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.161
 Current Ratio 0.87
Current Ratio QoQ 16.505 %
Current Ratio YoY 11.144 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 8.027
median: 1.263
mean: 1.225
YPF: 0.87
low: 0.33
 Quick Ratio 0.676
Quick Ratio QoQ 24.441 %
Quick Ratio YoY 11.745 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 1.511
mean: 0.902
median: 0.892
YPF: 0.676
low: 0.398
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 8.081
 Cost Of Debt 1.533 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 2.845
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 22.682 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -329.018 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 28.951
median: 6.462
mean: 6.16
YPF: 2.845
low: -29.945
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.027
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 62.561
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -0.44 %
 Revenue Growth -2.132 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -5058.14 %
Revenue Growth YoY -79.086 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 53.032 %
mean: -1.876 %
YPF: -2.132 %
median: -3.951 %
low: -63.186 %
 Earnings Growth 169.355 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -129.355 %
Earnings Growth YoY -241.444 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 462.5 %
YPF: 169.355 %
mean: 0.91 %
median: -19.048 %
low: -194.231 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 28.873 %
Gross Margin QoQ 1.252 %
Gross Margin YoY 37.21 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 69.391 %
YPF: 28.873 %
mean: 21.432 %
median: 19.958 %
low: -22.31 %
 EBIT Margin 13.336 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 3.887 %
EBIT Margin YoY -324.966 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 95.267 %
YPF: 13.336 %
mean: 11.398 %
median: 10.815 %
low: -130.344 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 9.881 %
Return On Sales QoQ -17.638 %
Return On Sales YoY -266.684 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 95.267 %
mean: 9.997 %
YPF: 9.881 %
median: 7.5 %
low: -56.401 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 318.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 2.231 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -78.527 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -100.194 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 9.376 %
YPF: 2.231 %
mean: 1.48 %
median: 1.02 %
low: -9.877 %
 Free Cash Growth 312.987 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -135.757 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -256.73 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA YPF: 312.987 %
high: 241.448 %
mean: -9.635 %
median: -10.314 %
low: -255.102 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.486
 Cash Flow Margin -4.423 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.307
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) -2.217 %
Return On Assets QoQ 215.363 %
Return On Assets YoY 122.367 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 9.669 %
median: 1.105 %
mean: 0.836 %
YPF: -2.217 %
low: -7.748 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.755 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.06
Return On Equity QoQ 234.884 %
Return On Equity YoY 142.989 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.14
median: 0.024
mean: 0.012
YPF: -0.06
low: -0.197
 DuPont ROE -5.885 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.841 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -49.575 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -103.696 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 14.758 %
median: 1.981 %
mean: 1.923 %
YPF: 1.841 %
low: -11.925 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term price action should hinge on liquidity-flow and headline risk: improving free cash flow yield, above-average operating cash flow and the overturned judgment reduce a major legal overhang and support a constructive baseline for price consolidation above $40 support. Technical momentum indicators display a bullish bias without a confirmed MACD crossover; RSI and EMA relationships favor continued range expansion toward the $55 price-target mean embedded in consensus estimates, while the positive MRO value warns of potential mean reversion if operational or macro headlines reverse. Elevated leverage and below-peer coverage maintain asymmetric downside risk to sudden commodity or sovereign policy moves. Monitor reported developments on LNG project milestones and any changes to debt servicing or guarantees; such items will materially affect sentiment over the next six weeks.

About YPF Sociedad Anonima

YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF) develops a comprehensive range of energy solutions in Argentina. The company engages in both upstream and downstream activities in the oil and gas sector. In its upstream operations, YPF explores, exploits, and produces crude oil and natural gas. The downstream segment involves refining crude oil, producing petrochemicals, and transporting and distributing refined and petrochemical products. YPF commercializes crude oil, petrochemical products, and related specialties. In addition to oil and gas, YPF manages gas and power operations, which include transporting, commercializing, and distributing natural gas. The company operates regasification terminals and processes and separates natural gas. YPF also participates in power generation, contributing to Argentina’s energy infrastructure. The company’s retail network includes service stations, and it manages refineries and terminal facilities at Argentine ports. YPF supplies a variety of products such as diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, and lubricants, along with fertilizers and phytosanitary products. Established in 1977, YPF Sociedad Anonima maintains its headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and plays a key role in the nation’s energy landscape.



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