Recent News
On January 5, 2026 Vistra announced an agreement to acquire the majority of Cogentrix Energy’s U.S. natural-gas generation portfolio, adding roughly 5.5 GW of capacity in a transaction valued near $4–$4.7 billion. On March 5, 2026 the company expanded its residential battery aggregation program to include Enphase IQ batteries, scaling its Battery Rewards virtual power plant in Texas to bolster grid reliability. Company filings in late 2025 noted an S&P issuer-credit upgrade to investment grade and the completion of earlier asset transactions referenced in regulatory filings.
Technical Analysis
Directional indicators: ADX reads 16.7, indicating no established trend; DI+ sits at 20.68 and recently moved as a dip-and-reverse, which signals renewed bullish directional pressure, while DI- at 27.96 showed a peak-and-reverse, consistent with waning bearish dominance. Together these point toward a nascent directional shift but without strong trend confirmation given ADX below 20.
MACD momentum: MACD stands at 0.09 with the MACD signal at 0.02; MACD has dipped and then reversed and currently trades above its signal line, which constitutes a bullish momentum crossover and supports near-term upside pressure.
MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO equals -4.09 and has shown a dip-and-reverse; the negative reading indicates price below WMDST’s target framework and therefore implies potential for price appreciation toward target levels rather than immediate overextension.
RSI and short-term momentum: RSI at 49.64 with a dip-and-reverse profile sits near neutral but tilting positive; combined with the MACD crossover and the MRO signal, the short-term momentum favors a measured rebound rather than an aggressive breakout.
Price vs. averages and bands: Last close $167.37 exceeds the 20-day average $163.33 and the 50-day average $163.37, while remaining below the 200-day average $181.91; price trades inside the 1x Bollinger band range ($159.34–$167.32), indicating the move higher occupies the upper short-term volatility band but lacks long-term confirmation.
Volatility and market structure: 42-day beta equals 1.34 and 52-week beta 1.78, implying above-market sensitivity to swings; super trend lower at $157.13 offers a near-term technical support reference for momentum traders tracking structure rather than price targets.
Fundamental Analysis
Revenue and margin profile: Total revenue $4,971,000,000 with YoY revenue growth of -73.299% but sequential quarter growth of 110.484%. Gross margin stands at 39.147% (down YoY by 28.959%), operating margin 20.962% (YoY -49.614%), and EBIT margin 22.088%. Vistra’s EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean of 34.001% and below the industry peer median of 41.132%, indicating lower operating efficiency relative to typical peers despite positive absolute margins.
Earnings and cashflow: Reported EPS $0.54 versus an estimate of $2.30 — an EPS shortfall of $1.76 or approximately -76.5% relative to the estimate. Operating cash flow $1,467,000,000 and free cash flow $1,009,000,000 produce a cash-flow-to-earnings multiple of 1.55 and a cash-flow margin of 26.675%, suggesting strong cash generation relative to reported net income and supporting balance-sheet flexibility for acquisitions and buybacks.
Leverage and liquidity: Total debt $17,502,000,000 and net debt $16,611,000,000 produce debt-to-assets 46.034% and debt-to-equity 6.4016. Debt-to-EBITDA equals 9.78x; interest coverage sits at 4.54x. S&P’s recent upgrade to investment grade (reported in filings) aligns with improved access to capital that the company has used for acquisition financing and note offerings disclosed in early 2026.
Capital allocation & returns: Dividend payout ratio 15.031% and dividend yield 0.148% pair with a dividend-coverage ratio of 6.65, indicating modest cash return to shareholders relative to earnings. Return on equity 23.848% and return on assets 1.712% show equity returns materially higher than asset returns, reflecting a capital structure with significant leverage that amplifies ROE.
Valuation context: Price multiples register elevated: PE ratio ~111.71, forward PE ~82.74, price-to-book ~24.22, EV/Rev ~16.72 and enterprise multiple around 46.45. WMDST values the stock as over-valued given those multiples versus operational and margin trends; forward EPS and free-cash expectations partially justify higher multiples, but current market prices already price in substantial future improvement and recent M&A-driven growth.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-09-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2026-02-27 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-05-29 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 495.0 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 1.5 B | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -458.00 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ 29.0 M | |
| Dividends Paid | $ -98.00 M | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ 143.0 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 638.0 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 5.0 B | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 1.8 B | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 3.0 B | |
| Depreciation | $ 691.0 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 691.0 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 3.9 B | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 1.9 B | |
| EBITDA | $ 1.8 B | |
| EBIT | $ 1.1 B | |
| Operating Income | $ 1.0 B | |
| Interest Income | $ 4.0 M | |
| Interest Expense | $ 242.0 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -272.00 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 856.0 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 204.0 M | |
| Tax Rate | 23.8 % | |
| Net Income | $ 652.0 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 652.0 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 2.30 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 0.54 | |
| EPS Difference | $ -1.76 | |
| EPS Surprise | -76.522 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 2.75 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 38.0 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 4.9 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 303.0 M | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 8.4 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 602.0 M | |
| Cash | $ 602.0 M | |
| Net Receivables | $ 2.3 B | |
| Inventory | $ 970.0 M | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 1.4 B | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 1.4 B | |
| Short-Term Debt | $ 1.5 B | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 8.4 B | |
| Net Debt | $ 16.6 B | |
| Total Debt | $ 17.5 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 32.8 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 2.7 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ -107.00 M | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 8.07 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 338.680 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 14.68 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 66.2 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 83.1 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | 46.455 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | -18.978 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | 306.481 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 109.499 VST: 46.455 median: 37.284 mean: 31.434 low: -34.347 |
|
| EV/R | 16.718 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 13.906 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.159 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.865 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.46 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | -2.687 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 1036.081 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 0.72 VST: 0.46 mean: 0.364 median: 0.311 low: 0.169 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 6.402 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | -16.738 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 1136.524 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 7.982 VST: 6.402 mean: 2.546 median: 0.918 low: -3.563 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 24.216 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | -10.394 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | 91.844 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | VST: 24.216 high: 3.069 median: 2.374 mean: 1.369 low: -7.501 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 111.706 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | -50.029 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | 449.141 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 239.096 median: 158.025 VST: 111.706 mean: 81.38 low: -219.064 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | 0.963 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 13.319 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | -10.758 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | 123.765 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 60.901 VST: 13.319 mean: 9.149 median: 2.89 low: 0.052 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 82.738 | |
| Forward PE/G | 0.713 | |
| Forward P/S | 43.613 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | 4.047 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.131 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | 17.288 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | -20.077 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | VST: 0.131 high: 0.093 median: 0.067 mean: 0.061 low: 0.017 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 2.182 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | 6.619 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | -25.855 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 3.752 VST: 2.182 median: 1.641 mean: 1.552 low: 0.964 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | 3.127 | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | 11.17 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | 5.937 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 7.4 mean: 4.274 median: 4.149 VST: 3.127 low: 3.121 |
|
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 41.816 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 29.967 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | -13.683 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | 78.878 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 78.66 VST: 29.967 mean: 1.244 median: -0.434 low: -80.991 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | -110.467 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.092 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -0.663 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 21.0 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 19.9 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 19.9 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 303.0 M | |
| Net Working Capital | $ -45.00 M | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 0.071 | |
| Current Ratio | 0.995 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | 10.604 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -10.689 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 4.66 mean: 1.22 VST: 0.995 median: 0.884 low: 0.392 |
|
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | 10.355 % | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | -11.141 % | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | high: 1.307 mean: 0.896 VST: 0.88 median: 0.703 low: 0.389 |
|
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | 9.783 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 1.038 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 4.537 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | 72.845 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | -61.149 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 9.262 VST: 4.537 mean: 4.401 median: 1.94 low: -4.163 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | 0.157 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 44.462 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | 6.653 | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | 0.15 | |
| Dividend Rate | $ 0.29 | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.001 | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | -0.33 % | |
| Revenue Growth | 16.965 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | 110.484 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -73.299 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 48.983 % mean: 25.544 % median: 19.307 % VST: 16.965 % low: -2.206 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | 116.049 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -162.026 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -76.79 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | VST: 116.049 % high: 60.694 % median: 47.059 % mean: -66.239 % low: -404.63 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 39.147 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | 7.825 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | -28.959 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 71.592 % median: 41.168 % mean: 40.031 % VST: 39.147 % low: 11.262 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | 22.088 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | 44.196 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | -46.908 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 105.059 % median: 41.132 % mean: 34.001 % VST: 22.088 % low: -7.915 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 20.962 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | 52.807 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | -49.614 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 49.102 % mean: 27.141 % median: 23.845 % VST: 20.962 % low: -7.915 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ 1.0 B | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 1.524 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | -919.355 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | -43.909 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 3.423 % VST: 1.524 % median: -1.714 % mean: -3.123 % low: -10.519 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | -955.085 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | 3064.839 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -2189.81 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 471.338 % mean: 197.742 % median: 169.236 % low: -111.656 % VST: -955.085 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 1.548 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | 26.675 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 2.034 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.04 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 1.712 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | 100.0 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -65.09 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 4.079 % mean: 1.758 % VST: 1.712 % median: 1.287 % low: -0.499 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | 3.71 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | 0.238 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | 71.162 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | -62.548 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.49 VST: 0.238 mean: 0.07 median: 0.059 low: -0.001 |
|
| DuPont ROE | 25.664 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 4.194 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | 59.589 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -98.685 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | VST: 4.194 % high: 3.113 % mean: 1.922 % median: 1.536 % low: 0.841 % |
|