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On January 27, 2026 CF Industries announced a low‑carbon fertilizer pilot in partnership with POET and major agricultural cooperatives to reduce the carbon intensity of fertilizer production; the company highlighted continued work on decarbonized ammonia projects during January–February 2026. CF scheduled a presentation at the BofA Global Agriculture and Materials Conference in mid‑February 2026. The board declared a quarterly dividend payable February 27, 2026. Leadership transitioned at the start of January 2026 when a new president and CEO took effect.
Technical Analysis
ADX at 44.17 signals a very strong underlying trend; directional readings show DI+ at 40.66 with a peak‑and‑reverse and DI‑ at 13.59 with a dip‑and‑reversal, which together indicate directional weakness despite the strong trend (both directional moves point toward a bearish directional bias while trend strength remains high).
MACD sits at 8.11 versus a signal line of 6.55 with the MACD trend increasing and the indicator above its signal line, indicating bullish momentum and a recent bullish momentum cross.
MRO reads 37.96 and remains positive, indicating price currently sits above the model target and faces mean‑reversion pressure; the MRO trend shows a dip‑and‑reversal consistent with recent contraction of downward momentum and a potential shift toward consolidation.
RSI at 62.8 with a peak‑and‑reversal signals short‑term overbought pressure and elevates the risk of a pullback from near‑term highs rather than immediate breakout continuation.
Price action sits at $126.73, above the 12‑day EMA ($118.60 increasing), the 20‑day average ($115.75) and the 50‑day average ($97.97), and near the 1x upper Bollinger band ($127.88), which favors continuation after a short consolidation but warns of limited upside before a clearer breakout occurs. Volume today (5,078) remains well below short‑ and long‑term averages, reducing conviction in any intraday move.
Fundamental Analysis
Profitability and cash flow: EBIT margin equals 34.24% and exceeds the industry peer range high of 30.75%; EBIT stands at $641,000,000 and EBITDA at $869,000,000. Operating margin registers 36.38% with operating income of $681,000,000. YoY EBIT margin rose 11.50%, while QoQ EBIT margin declined 5.64%.
Revenue and growth: Total revenue reached $1,872,000,000 with YoY revenue growth of 14.22% and a QoQ revenue change of -205.05% (as reported). Net income totaled $404,000,000 and reported earnings per share came in at $2.59 versus an estimate of $2.35, an EPS surprise ratio of 10.21% (EPS beat of $0.24).
Balance sheet and liquidity: Cash and short‑term investments equal $1,982,000,000, current ratio stands at 3.37 and quick ratio at 2.93, reflecting strong near‑term liquidity. Total debt equals $3,636,000,000 with net debt of $1,233,000,000; debt/EBITDA reads 4.18 while interest coverage equals 16.44x, indicating ample coverage despite leverage.
Returns and efficiency: Return on equity equals 8.35% (above the industry peer mean and median), return on assets 2.86%; asset turnover registers 0.132 with YoY improvement. Free cash flow equals $313,000,000 with a free cash flow yield of 2.34% and free cash growth showing a notable QoQ contraction.
Market multiples and valuation: Trailing PE equals 33.58 and forward PE equals 46.60, while the price‑to‑book ratio stands at 2.76 (below the industry peer mean and median). Enterprise value equals $15,008,494,486 and EV multiple measures near 17.27. WMDST values the stock as under‑valued, citing the company’s strong margin profile, cash balances of $1.98 billion, and free cash flow generation despite elevated trailing multiples.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-12-31 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2026-02-18 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-05-20 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 1.8 B |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 539.0 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -226.00 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ -285.00 M | |
| Dividends Paid | $ -78.00 M | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ 144.0 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 2.0 B | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 1.9 B | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 337.3 M | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 1.1 B | |
| Depreciation | $ 228.0 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 228.0 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 1.2 B | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 765.0 M | |
| EBITDA | $ 869.0 M | |
| EBIT | $ 641.0 M | |
| Operating Income | $ 681.0 M | |
| Interest Income | $ 24.0 M | |
| Interest Expense | $ 39.0 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -17.00 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 602.0 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 107.0 M | |
| Tax Rate | 17.774 % | |
| Net Income | $ 404.0 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 495.0 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 2.35 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 2.59 | |
| EPS Difference | $ 0.24 | |
| EPS Surprise | 10.213 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 1.90 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 14.1 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 3.0 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 1.9 B | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 3.0 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 2.0 B | |
| Cash | $ 2.0 B | |
| Net Receivables | $ 444.0 M | |
| Inventory | $ 383.0 M | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 308.0 M | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 148.0 M | |
| Short-Term Debt | — | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 887.0 M | |
| Net Debt | $ 1.2 B | |
| Total Debt | $ 3.6 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 6.3 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 4.8 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ 3.9 B | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 31.51 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 153.552 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 12.19 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 13.4 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 15.0 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | 17.271 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | -7.205 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | -27.611 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 201.531 mean: 71.314 median: 69.978 CF: 17.271 low: -23.043 |
|
| EV/R | 8.017 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 2.912 | |
| Asset To Liability | 2.232 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.429 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.258 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | 7.942 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 7.069 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 0.677 mean: 0.371 median: 0.323 CF: 0.258 low: 0.005 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 0.752 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | 7.311 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 15.419 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 3.443 mean: 1.198 CF: 0.752 median: 0.734 low: -2.333 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 2.76 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | -2.195 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | -7.067 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 7.87 median: 5.316 mean: 4.214 CF: 2.76 low: -3.248 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 33.579 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | -15.266 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | -31.037 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 152.705 median: 134.49 mean: 117.635 CF: 33.579 low: -140.562 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | 1.838 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 7.134 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | -13.52 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | -26.574 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 23.197 median: 18.503 mean: 17.124 CF: 7.134 low: 0.853 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 46.599 | |
| Forward PE/G | 2.551 | |
| Forward P/S | 43.05 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | 0.505 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.132 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | 11.491 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | 18.574 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 0.321 CF: 0.132 mean: 0.131 median: 0.101 low: 0.003 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 3.579 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | 28.158 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | 0.992 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | CF: 3.579 high: 3.277 median: 1.702 mean: 1.655 low: 0.278 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | 2.952 | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | -1.84 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | -9.226 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | CF: 2.952 high: 2.694 median: 2.174 mean: 1.798 low: 0.542 |
|
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 25.493 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 20.429 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | 367.243 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | -7.973 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 253.698 mean: 55.699 median: 40.342 CF: 20.429 low: -25.808 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | 0.892 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.121 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -0.991 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 8.1 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 8.1 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 8.1 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 1.9 B | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 2.1 B | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 2.235 | |
| Current Ratio | 3.365 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | 48.036 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | 9.238 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 4.382 CF: 3.365 mean: 1.137 median: 0.877 low: 0.797 |
|
| Quick Ratio | 2.933 | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | 47.18 % | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | 8.776 % | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | CF: 2.933 high: 2.289 mean: 0.846 median: 0.742 low: 0.471 |
|
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | 4.184 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 0.912 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 16.436 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | 1.018 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | 22.918 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 16.611 CF: 16.436 median: 8.366 mean: 8.067 low: -5.752 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | 0.232 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 38.384 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | 5.179 | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | 0.193 | |
| Dividend Rate | $ 0.51 | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.006 | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | -0.81 % | |
| Revenue Growth | 12.839 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | -205.048 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | 14.216 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 42.575 % CF: 12.839 % median: -2.034 % mean: -3.223 % low: -23.729 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | 18.265 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -340.487 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -45.611 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 55.556 % CF: 18.265 % median: -20.293 % mean: -22.861 % low: -217.241 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 40.865 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | 7.271 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | 18.852 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 60.41 % median: 48.117 % mean: 42.972 % CF: 40.865 % low: 7.604 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | 34.241 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | -5.638 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | 11.502 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | CF: 34.241 % high: 30.753 % median: 26.061 % mean: 20.907 % low: -6.716 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 36.378 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | 5.142 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | 18.46 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | CF: 36.378 % high: 32.733 % median: 24.384 % mean: 20.792 % low: -3.006 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ 313.0 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 2.344 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | -55.259 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | 56.371 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 12.585 % CF: 2.344 % mean: 1.194 % median: 0.773 % low: -6.674 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | -56.346 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -144.654 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -21.709 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 228.736 % median: -5.981 % mean: -16.498 % CF: -56.346 % low: -332.845 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 0.775 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | 11.004 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 0.51 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.04 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 2.856 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | 13.064 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | 18.901 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 4.12 % CF: 2.856 % median: 1.771 % mean: 1.534 % low: -2.408 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | 4.856 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | 0.084 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | 14.712 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | 26.915 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.104 CF: 0.084 mean: 0.049 median: 0.04 low: -0.055 |
|
| DuPont ROE | 8.341 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 6.545 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | 4.486 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -74.789 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | CF: 6.545 % high: 5.897 % median: 2.664 % mean: 2.648 % low: -1.282 % |
|