Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE:BURL) Accelerates Store Expansion Despite Valuation Headwinds

Burlington continues rolling out store updates and capacity moves while fundamentals show margin resilience but valuation and cash flow metrics create near-term pressure.

Recent News

On February 2, 2026 an insider sold 419 shares under a pre‑existing trading plan. On March 19, 2026 the company closed exchange agreements to swap a portion of outstanding notes for cash and shares, according to a filing summary.

Technical Analysis

ADX sits at 11.2, indicating no established trend and implying directional indicators lack conviction relative to the near‑term outlook.

DI+ measures 24.38 with a decreasing trend, which signals bearish directional pressure and weakens the immediate upside bias.

DI− reads 23.28 with a peak-and-reversal, a bullish flip in negative-direction momentum that creates a conflicting directional picture against the falling DI+.

MACD registers −0.07 with a dip-and-reversal trend; that pattern signals returning bullish momentum, though the MACD remains below the 0.83 signal line and has not crossed above it.

MRO registers 15.2 with a peak-and-reversal; because the MRO is positive, price trades above the model target and carries downward pressure on price despite recent momentum cues.

RSI stands at 52.4 and is decreasing, indicating mid‑range momentum with recent softening that favors caution for near‑term long exposures.

Price closed at $300.43, slightly below the 20‑day ($303.67) and 50‑day ($304.28) averages while remaining above the 200‑day average ($276.19); the 12‑day EMA shows a dip-and-reversal, consistent with a short‑term bounce attempt inside a range. Bollinger bands place the 1σ band between $296.35 and $310.99, while the super trend lower at $292.93 provides the immediate downside reference.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $2,710,440,000 with reported revenue growth at 0.20% overall; quarter-over-quarter revenue declined by 97.53% and year‑over‑year revenue declined by 92.51% per the supplied measures, highlighting pronounced timing effects in top‑line comparables.

Gross margin equals 44.30%, improving modestly QoQ (+1.08%) and YoY (+0.76%), supporting operating leverage. EBIT reached $157,213,000 and EBIT margin sits at 5.80%, up +8.39% QoQ and +8.09% YoY; that EBIT margin remains below the industry peer mean of 11.648% and the industry peer median of 12.80%, though above the industry peer low of 4.456% within the reported peer range.

Net income totaled $104,750,000 while operating cash flow reached $143,332,000; free cash flow converted to a negative $113,018,000 and free cash flow yield equals −0.66%, a material contrast with the industry peer mean free cash flow yield near 0.83% and median around 0.64%. The free cash flow shortfall increases sensitivity to financing choices given elevated leverage.

Leverage shows total debt of $5,944,755,000 and debt‑to‑equity of 3.89x (≈389%), with debt‑to‑EBITDA near 23.18x and net debt about $1,451,345,000; interest coverage remains adequate at 8.21x but the capital structure carries outsized leverage relative to typical peers in the distribution group.

Profitability ratios show return on equity at 6.86% and return on assets at 1.11%, both below typical peer central tendencies; inventory turnover at 0.98x and days inventory outstanding around 92 days reflect a slower merchandise velocity versus the industry peer mean turnover of 1.09x. Cash conversion cycle sits near 31.8 days, close to the industry peer mean and median within the provided industry peer range.

EPS printed $4.89 versus an estimate of $4.75 for an EPS surprise of +2.95%. Forward EPS equals $3.36 with a forward P/E of 111.60 while the reported trailing P/E stands at 162.75, well above the industry peer mean P/E near 102.83 and median near 109.70. Book value per share equals $24.27 and the price‑to‑book measures 11.26 versus an industry peer mean of 13.78 and median near 16.66, placing price‑to‑book below peer central tendency.

WMDST values the stock as over‑valued: valuation pressure stems from very high trailing and forward P/E multiples, negative free cash flow yield, and elevated leverage, offset partially by healthy gross margin and positive EPS surprise that support the company’s expansion narrative.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-10-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-03-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-06-04
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 747.6 M
 Operating Cash Flow 143.3 M
 Capital Expenditures -256.35 M
 Change In Working Capital -115.12 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -163.54 M
 End Period Cash Flow 584.1 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 2.7 B
 Forward Revenue 1.4 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.5 B
 Depreciation 99.3 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 99.3 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 2.6 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 1.2 B
 EBITDA 256.5 M
 EBIT 157.2 M
 Operating Income 153.8 M
 Interest Income 4.9 M
 Interest Expense 19.2 M
 Net Interest Income -14.25 M
 Income Before Tax 138.1 M
 Tax Provision 33.3 M
 Tax Rate 24.127 %
 Net Income 104.8 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 104.7 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 4.75
 EPS Actual 4.89
 EPS Difference 0.14
 EPS Surprise 2.947 %
 Forward EPS 3.36
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 9.6 B
 Intangible Assets 285.1 M
 Net Tangible Assets 1.2 B
 Total Current Assets 2.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 584.1 M
 Cash 584.1 M
 Net Receivables 116.2 M
 Inventory 1.7 B
 Long-Term Investments 69.5 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.1 B
 Short-Term Debt 20.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 2.2 B
 Net Debt 1.5 B
 Total Debt 5.9 B
 Total Liabilities 8.1 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.5 B
 Retained Earnings 1.8 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 24.27
 Shares Outstanding 62.927 M
 Revenue Per-Share 43.07
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 17.2 B
 Enterprise Value 22.6 B
 Enterprise Multiple 87.978
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -3.807 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 23.789 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 166.079
BURL: 87.978
median: 73.067
mean: 64.327
low: -40.347
 EV/R 8.326
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 6.283
 Asset To Liability 1.189
 Debt To Capital 0.796
 Debt To Assets 0.619
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.232 %
Debt To Assets YoY 2962.086 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA BURL: 0.619
high: 0.423
median: 0.375
mean: 0.367
low: 0.117
 Debt To Equity 3.892
Debt To Equity QoQ -3.562 %
Debt To Equity YoY 2511.946 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA BURL: 3.892
high: 1.478
median: 1.41
mean: 1.349
low: 0.151
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 11.264
Price To Book QoQ -3.108 %
Price To Book YoY -21.998 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 16.66
median: 16.66
mean: 13.783
BURL: 11.264
low: 0.25
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 162.748
Price To Earnings QoQ -2.107 %
Price To Earnings YoY -3.272 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 307.132
BURL: 162.748
median: 109.7
mean: 102.831
low: -30.837
 PE/G Ratio 28.754
 Price To Sales (P/S) 6.348
Price To Sales QoQ 2.093 %
Price To Sales YoY -2.966 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 10.314
median: 10.314
mean: 8.935
BURL: 6.348
low: 0.992
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 111.602
Forward PE/G 19.718
Forward P/S 17.575
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 43.376
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.287
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -5.348 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -7.863 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.444
median: 0.444
mean: 0.41
BURL: 0.287
low: 0.105
 Receivables Turnover 23.832
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -3.985 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -4.635 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA BURL: 23.832
high: 10.787
mean: 5.107
median: 2.545
low: 2.399
 Inventory Turnover 0.983
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -11.736 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -7.731 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.219
median: 1.219
mean: 1.093
BURL: 0.983
low: 0.117
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 3.829
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 31.768
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 8.171 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 49.294 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 94.387
mean: 39.593
BURL: 31.768
median: 31.628
low: 4.315
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 5.907
 CapEx To Revenue -0.095
 CapEx To Depreciation -2.582
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 3.5 B
 Net Invested Capital 3.6 B
 Invested Capital 3.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.2 B
 Net Working Capital 458.8 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.265
 Current Ratio 1.208
Current Ratio QoQ -1.717 %
Current Ratio YoY 3.358 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.4
BURL: 1.208
mean: 1.185
median: 1.094
low: 1.079
 Quick Ratio 0.456
Quick Ratio QoQ -17.724 %
Quick Ratio YoY -16.114 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 0.794
BURL: 0.456
mean: 0.441
median: 0.426
low: 0.373
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 23.177
 Cost Of Debt 0.247 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 8.208
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -1.183 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 7.391 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 29.78
BURL: 8.208
median: 2.944
mean: -3.663
low: -17.141
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.022
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 64.331
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 3.088 %
 Revenue Growth 0.198 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -97.534 %
Revenue Growth YoY -92.511 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 51.648 %
median: 4.972 %
mean: 1.528 %
BURL: 0.198 %
low: -32.314 %
 Earnings Growth 5.66 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -82.585 %
Earnings Growth YoY -80.595 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 50.0 %
median: 16.364 %
BURL: 5.66 %
mean: -21.721 %
low: -321.717 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 44.295 %
Gross Margin QoQ 1.077 %
Gross Margin YoY 0.757 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 61.499 %
BURL: 44.295 %
median: 32.592 %
mean: 32.279 %
low: 12.773 %
 EBIT Margin 5.8 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 8.391 %
EBIT Margin YoY 8.088 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 12.8 %
median: 12.8 %
mean: 11.648 %
BURL: 5.8 %
low: 4.456 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 5.674 %
Return On Sales QoQ 9.094 %
Return On Sales YoY 5.74 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 12.489 %
median: 12.489 %
mean: 10.472 %
BURL: 5.674 %
low: 0.802 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -113.02 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -0.657 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 852.174 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 70.649 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.328 %
mean: 0.829 %
low: 0.642 %
median: 0.642 %
BURL: -0.657 %
 Free Cash Growth 871.028 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -994.316 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 1054.689 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA BURL: 871.028 %
high: 8.637 %
median: -24.737 %
mean: -28.49 %
low: -811.579 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -1.079
 Cash Flow Margin 1.825 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.472
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.108 %
Return On Assets QoQ 5.024 %
Return On Assets YoY -0.539 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.237 %
median: 4.237 %
mean: 3.128 %
BURL: 1.108 %
low: -2.938 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.126 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.069
Return On Equity QoQ 5.346 %
Return On Equity YoY -13.212 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.17
median: 0.154
mean: 0.109
BURL: 0.069
low: -0.138
 DuPont ROE 7.044 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 3.348 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 9.02 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -122.052 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 17.59 %
median: 11.916 %
mean: 8.854 %
BURL: 3.348 %
low: -6.247 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect rangebound action with bias toward downside if momentum fails to confirm the MACD dip‑and‑reversal: the low ADX and conflicting DI signals suggest short moves rather than a sustained trend. Positive short‑term EMA reversal and an RSI near mid‑range allow for episodic bounces toward the $322–$324 area implied by analyst consensus, but negative free cash flow yield and high leverage increase the probability that upside meets valuation resistance. Use the $292–$294 zone as immediate downside support, and monitor volume and MACD crossing above the signal line for any meaningful shift in near‑term momentum.

About Burlington Stores, Inc.

Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE:BURL) delivers a diverse selection of branded merchandise at competitive prices, appealing to a wide range of customers. Headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey, the company offers an extensive array of women’s, men’s, and youth apparel. Beyond clothing, Burlington Stores provides a broad assortment of footwear, accessories, toys, gifts, and coats. Customers can also find a variety of baby essentials, home décor, and beauty products, making Burlington a comprehensive shopping destination. The company operates under the Burlington Stores and Cohoes Fashions brand names, extending its reach to locations including Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico. Burlington Stores maintains a strong commitment to offering high-quality products at exceptional value, ensuring its status as a reliable retail choice. By staying attuned to fashion trends and consumer preferences, Burlington continues to attract shoppers who value both style and affordability.



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