Bill Holdings, Inc (NYSE:BILL) Poised For Near-Term Volatility After Buyout Talks

Recent deal chatter and conflicting momentum indicators set the stage for sharply higher intraday ranges; fundamentals show operational improvement but valuation metrics remain stretched. Market sensitivity to corporate developments should dominate the next weeks.

Recent News

On February 5, 2026 the company reported fiscal Q2 results and updated guidance; coverage noted stronger-than-expected profitability metrics and raised full-year outlook. On February 6, 2026 multiple outlets reported Bloomberg-sourced accounts that private equity firm Hellman & Friedman entered formal acquisition discussions with Bill Holdings, triggering broad market coverage of a potential sale process.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 17.72 indicates the market currently lacks a defined trend; this low strength supports the expectation that price moves will remain reactionary to news rather than follow a sustained directional impulse.

DI+ stands at 20.23 and is decreasing, a bearish directional signal that weighs on near-term upside potential relative to recent price action.

DI- sits at 28.39 and shows a peak-and-reverse pattern, which by definition signals a bullish shift in the negative-direction indicator; this divergence between DI+ and DI- implies conflicting directional pressure and elevated volatility risk.

MACD reads -1.46 with a decreasing trend and a signal line at -1.23; negative and declining MACD signals bearish momentum and suggest the recent upside lacks durable follow-through.

MRO at 11.5 with a dip-and-reversal profile remains positive, indicating the current price sits above the model target and therefore carries potential downward pressure if momentum fails to re-accelerate.

RSI at 43.98 and decreasing shows momentum moving toward oversold territory but not yet oversold; the falling RSI reinforces short-term downside bias while leaving room for further pullback if sellers reassert control.

Price closed at $39.98, below the 20-day average ($42.46), 50-day average ($45.51) and 200-day average ($47.64), and it trades marginally below the 1x lower Bollinger band ($40.04). These relationships signal the market price currently tests lower volatility boundaries and would likely remain sensitive to headline risk.

Short-term volatility measures show elevated sensitivity: 42-day beta at 3.94 and 42-day volatility at 7%; volume on the session measured below short- and long-run averages, so price gaps tied to news events remain the most probable path to large moves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $414,671,000. Reported revenue growth shows a quarter-over-quarter rise of 47.94% and a year-over-year change listed at 317.73%; sequential expansion contrasts with the more modest trailing growth figure of 4.78% noted elsewhere in company metrics. Gross margin stands at 79.84%, above the industry peer mean of 71.91% and the industry peer median of 68.04%, reflecting a high-margin software business model.

Earnings per share reached $0.64 versus an estimate of $0.56, a $0.08 beat and a 14.29% surprise. Operating results remain mixed: operating margin sits at -4.26% but improved quarter-over-quarter by 42.29%, while EBIT margin equals 0.73% and fell 26.77% QoQ and 93.12% YoY—showing progress toward profitability on some measures but continued operating compression on others.

Cash and liquidity remain ample: cash of $1.094 billion and cash plus short-term investments of $2.242 billion against total debt of $1.887 billion and net debt of $739.07 million. The current ratio measures 1.65, modestly below the industry peer mean of 1.81 but above the industry peer low; working capital sits positive at $2.895 billion.

Free cash flow totaled $91.133 million, with a free cash flow yield of 1.85% and year-over-year free cash flow yield growth of 131.13%. Return metrics remain near zero or negative: return on equity at -0.068% and return on assets at -0.026%, consistent with a business transitioning toward sustained profitability.

Leverage metrics warrant attention: debt-to-EBITDA registers at 49.15x, a high reading driven by modest trailing earnings, while debt-to-equity sits at 0.50. Interest coverage remains constrained at 0.59x. Price multiples reflect growth expectations and market sentiment: trailing P/E near 77.0x, price-to-sales about 11.9x, and price-to-book at 1.29x. WMDST’s valuation assessment labels the shares under-valued; that valuation juxtaposes rich multiples with improving cash flow dynamics and a sizable liquidity buffer.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-07
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 3.5 B
 Operating Cash Flow 105.3 M
 Capital Expenditures -14.18 M
 Change In Working Capital -4.94 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 128.9 M
 End Period Cash Flow 3.7 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 414.7 M
 Forward Revenue -2.69 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 83.6 M
 Depreciation 7.6 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 35.4 M
 Research and Development 82.8 M
 Total Operating Expenses 432.3 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 331.1 M
 EBITDA 38.4 M
 EBIT 3.0 M
 Operating Income -17.66 M
 Interest Income 23.3 M
 Interest Expense 5.1 M
 Net Interest Income 16.6 M
 Income Before Tax -2.07 M
 Tax Provision 522.0 K
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income -2.59 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -2.59 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.56
 EPS Actual 0.64
 EPS Difference 0.08
 EPS Surprise 14.286 %
 Forward EPS 0.67
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 10.1 B
 Intangible Assets 2.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.2 B
 Total Current Assets 7.3 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 2.2 B
 Cash 1.1 B
 Net Receivables 41.2 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 33.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 5.0 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 4.4 B
 Net Debt 739.1 M
 Total Debt 1.9 B
 Total Liabilities 6.3 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.8 B
 Retained Earnings -1.73 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 38.08
 Shares Outstanding 99.967 M
 Revenue Per-Share 4.15
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 4.9 B
 Enterprise Value 4.6 B
 Enterprise Multiple 119.143
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -29.414 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 11.05 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 416.607
BILL: 119.143
mean: 72.002
median: 61.115
low: -363.609
 EV/R 11.032
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.66
 Asset To Liability 1.602
 Debt To Capital 0.331
 Debt To Assets 0.186
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.564 %
Debt To Assets YoY 5301.449 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.87
BILL: 0.186
mean: 0.169
median: 0.087
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 0.496
Debt To Equity QoQ 0.156 %
Debt To Equity YoY 5558.79 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.989
BILL: 0.496
mean: 0.249
median: 0.147
low: -1.778
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.295
Price To Book QoQ 0.087 %
Price To Book YoY -42.932 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 26.941
mean: 10.869
median: 9.178
BILL: 1.295
low: -16.001
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 77.04
Price To Earnings QoQ -104.685 %
Price To Earnings YoY -49.113 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 522.411
mean: 127.517
median: 101.811
BILL: 77.04
low: -262.004
 PE/G Ratio 15.665
 Price To Sales (P/S) 11.886
Price To Sales QoQ -6.35 %
Price To Sales YoY -50.139 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 116.554
mean: 45.087
median: 44.141
BILL: 11.886
low: 0.808
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 77.109
Forward PE/G 15.679
Forward P/S -1.837
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 6.325
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.041
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.47 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 5.576 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.373
mean: 0.13
median: 0.125
BILL: 0.041
low: 0.0
 Receivables Turnover 11.318
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -7.832 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -5.028 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA BILL: 11.318
high: 5.582
mean: 1.566
median: 1.485
low: 0.392
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 8.062
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 0.927
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -113.22 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 214.534
BILL: 0.927
mean: -48.054
median: -67.075
low: -215.655
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.143
 CapEx To Revenue -0.034
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.863
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 5.6 B
 Net Invested Capital 5.6 B
 Invested Capital 5.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.2 B
 Net Working Capital 2.9 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.506
 Current Ratio 1.654
Current Ratio QoQ -1.233 %
Current Ratio YoY -0.348 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 7.11
mean: 1.814
BILL: 1.654
median: 1.386
low: 0.466
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 49.149
 Cost Of Debt 0.21 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 0.593
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 1.816 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -92.846 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 148.909
median: 66.552
mean: 45.565
BILL: 0.593
low: -122.007
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.005
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 7.136
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -0.244 %
 Revenue Growth 4.783 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 47.943 %
Revenue Growth YoY 317.729 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 19.11 %
mean: 6.014 %
BILL: 4.783 %
median: 4.635 %
low: -9.105 %
 Earnings Growth 4.918 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -104.655 %
Earnings Growth YoY -144.262 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 153.333 %
mean: 13.586 %
median: 9.459 %
BILL: 4.918 %
low: -163.636 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 79.842 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.869 %
Gross Margin YoY -2.188 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 94.68 %
BILL: 79.842 %
mean: 71.911 %
median: 68.036 %
low: 37.597 %
 EBIT Margin 0.725 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -26.768 %
EBIT Margin YoY -93.12 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 78.69 %
median: 60.268 %
mean: 46.498 %
BILL: 0.725 %
low: -97.081 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -4.26 %
Return On Sales QoQ 42.285 %
Return On Sales YoY -140.425 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 76.917 %
median: 47.094 %
mean: 36.622 %
BILL: -4.26 %
low: -76.387 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 91.1 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.849 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 12.882 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 131.125 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 5.274 %
BILL: 1.849 %
mean: 0.212 %
median: 0.164 %
low: -3.43 %
 Free Cash Growth 10.784 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -46.42 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -170.831 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 265.627 %
BILL: 10.784 %
mean: -23.575 %
median: -77.08 %
low: -202.128 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -35.214
 Cash Flow Margin 5.256 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -8.422
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) -0.026 %
Return On Assets QoQ -10.345 %
Return On Assets YoY -107.263 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 16.838 %
median: 5.909 %
mean: 4.893 %
BILL: -0.026 %
low: -10.846 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 0.053 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.001
Return On Equity QoQ -10.526 %
Return On Equity YoY -107.719 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.298
median: 0.098
mean: 0.086
BILL: -0.001
low: -0.282
 DuPont ROE -0.067 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 0.042 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -22.222 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -102.397 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 20.316 %
median: 9.056 %
mean: 7.287 %
BILL: 0.042 %
low: -11.474 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect a high-information regime: M&A process headlines or confirmation would reset the technical backdrop toward decisive upside; absent deal resolution, indicators favor range-bound to downward pressure punctuated by sharp intraday moves. Momentum indicators lean bearish while MRO shows the price currently exceeds WMDST’s target band, implying pullback risk on failed follow-through. Liquidity and balance-sheet strength reduce insolvency risk but do not insulate the stock from headline-driven re-pricing. Over the next six weeks, prepare for outsized intraday volatility tied to corporate announcements and for technical setups to remain fragile until MACD stabilizes and price regains the 20–50 day averages or a definitive M&A outcome emerges.

About Bill Holdings, Inc.

BILL Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BILL) designs comprehensive financial technology solutions tailored for small and midsize businesses worldwide. Based in San Jose, California, the company develops a robust platform that streamlines accounts payable and receivable processes, enhancing business transactions and connectivity with suppliers and customers. BILL Holdings leverages automation to eliminate traditional expense reports and optimize cash flow management, thereby increasing operational efficiency. Their cloud-based payments and spend management tools deliver a seamless user experience, supported by extensive onboarding, implementation, and ongoing support services. By integrating advanced artificial intelligence, BILL Holdings’ platform strengthens relationships between suppliers and clients, making it an essential tool for accounting firms, financial institutions, and software companies. Since its founding in 2006, the company has consistently advanced its offerings, rebranding from Bill.com Holdings, Inc. to BILL Holdings, Inc. in February 2023, to better reflect its innovative approach and growth in the dynamic fintech industry.



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