Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACLS) Projects Modest Recovery While Momentum Signals Turn Mixed

Axcelis trades from a fair-valued baseline with mixed technical momentum and fundamentally solid liquidity; near-term action depends on whether improving momentum sustains above short-term averages.

Recent News

Axcelis scheduled management participation at the 2026 Cantor Global Technology & Industrial Growth Conference in New York in March 2026. Management also appeared at the Needham Growth Conference in mid-January 2026. Analysts published an average “Hold” consensus in early February 2026 and filings noted a director sale on December 17, 2025.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators present mixed signals: ADX at 9.8 signals no trend, limiting conviction for directional trades. DI+ stands at 19.81 and shows a decreasing trend, which reads as bearish; DI- at 21.5 shows a peak & reversal, which reads as bullish. Together these readings imply range-bound action with short-term tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.

MACD shows accelerating bullish momentum: MACD at -0.65 moved above the signal line (-0.90), and the MACD trend reads increasing; that crossover signals a bullish shift in momentum despite negative absolute MACD. Expect the crossover to support upward pressure if it holds.

MRO sits at -23.19 with a peak & reversal pattern, indicating price below the WMDST target and implying potential upward pressure if momentum resumes. The negative oscillator suggests room for mean reversion toward the fair-valued estimate.

RSI at 49.69 with a peak & reversal pattern signals neutral-to-weak momentum; RSI near the midpoint supports a sideways bias until momentum breaks decisively above 60 or below 40.

Price versus moving averages: last close $85.18 sits above the 20-day average ($83.95) and the 200-day average ($81.52) but below the 50-day average ($87.87). The 12- and 26-day EMAs show a recent peak & reversal pattern, creating short-term resistance around the 50-day average. Bollinger bands place price inside the upper band (upper 1σ $86.79), leaving limited immediate upside before encountering volatility-driven resistance.

Volume and volatility show subdued conviction: 10-day average volume (~750k) slightly exceeds the latest session (~628k), and 42-day beta at 1.74 signals above-market short-term sensitivity. These conditions favor quick mean-reversion moves rather than trending breakouts.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: EBIT totals $41,354,000 and EBIT margin measures 17.35%, below the industry peer mean (34.885%) and median (35.306%) but above the peer low. Operating margin stands at 15.177% with operating margin QoQ up 29.574% and operating margin YoY down 36.247%. Gross margin at 46.965% improved modestly QoQ and YoY but remains below the industry peer mean of 52.467%.

Earnings and estimates: Reported EPS $1.49 beat the estimate $1.12 by $0.37, yielding an EPS surprise ratio of 33.04%. Forward EPS sits at $1.128 with a forward PE near 74.05 and a trailing PE of 58.74, reflecting elevated multiples against modest near-term earnings growth.

Revenue and growth: Total revenue $238,330,000 with reported revenue growth of 11.57% and a reported year-over-year change of -8.16% (as provided). QoQ revenue improved 18.07%, while several YoY operating profitability measures show declines, indicating recent quarter improvement against a tougher year-over-year backdrop.

Cash, leverage, and capital allocation: Cash and short-term investments total $374,253,000 with a current ratio of 4.77 and a quick ratio of 3.11, indicating strong liquidity. Total debt sits at $42,329,000 and debt-to-assets equals 3.11%, keeping leverage very low and interest coverage strong (~30.95x). Free cash flow runs negative at -$8,902,000 and operating cash flow for the period came in at -$6,567,000, producing a negative free cash flow yield (~-0.33%).

Efficiency and returns: Asset turnover equals 0.1757, near the industry peer mean of 0.2068 but slightly lower than the peer median. Return on equity registers 3.315% with return on assets near 2.528%; both show QoQ improvement but register below many industry peer medians where provided.

Valuation context: WMDST values the stock as fair-valued. Market multiples show elevated P/S (11.28) and P/E near 58.7, reflecting market expectations for recovery; P/B at 2.60 sits well below the industry peer mean and median. Enterprise value relative measures (EVR ~9.89, enterprise multiple ~51.43) point to a stretched market multiple relative to near-term cash flow performance.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-17
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-19
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 195.1 M
 Operating Cash Flow -6.57 M
 Capital Expenditures -2.33 M
 Change In Working Capital -45.08 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -39.05 M
 End Period Cash Flow 156.1 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 238.3 M
 Forward Revenue 60.2 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 126.4 M
 Depreciation 4.5 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 4.5 M
 Research and Development 30.1 M
 Total Operating Expenses 202.2 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 111.9 M
 EBITDA 45.8 M
 EBIT 41.4 M
 Operating Income 36.2 M
 Interest Income 4.9 M
 Interest Expense 1.3 M
 Net Interest Income 3.6 M
 Income Before Tax 40.0 M
 Tax Provision 5.7 M
 Tax Rate 14.296 %
 Net Income 34.3 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 34.3 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.12
 EPS Actual 1.49
 EPS Difference 0.37
 EPS Surprise 33.036 %
 Forward EPS 1.13
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.4 B
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 1.0 B
 Total Current Assets 943.2 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 374.3 M
 Cash 145.5 M
 Net Receivables 168.5 M
 Inventory 329.0 M
 Long-Term Investments 56.6 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 42.3 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 197.7 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 42.3 M
 Total Liabilities 326.7 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.0 B
 Retained Earnings 503.5 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 33.68
 Shares Outstanding 30.717 M
 Revenue Per-Share 7.76
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 2.7 B
 Enterprise Value 2.4 B
 Enterprise Multiple 51.43
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -14.824 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 73.821 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 244.045
median: 114.544
mean: 107.539
ACLS: 51.43
low: -216.655
 EV/R 9.887
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.316
 Asset To Liability 4.167
 Debt To Capital 0.039
 Debt To Assets 0.031
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.489 %
Debt To Assets YoY -3.984 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.455
median: 0.194
mean: 0.165
ACLS: 0.031
low: 0.003
 Debt To Equity 0.041
Debt To Equity QoQ -2.199 %
Debt To Equity YoY -5.125 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 0.96
mean: 0.266
median: 0.138
ACLS: 0.041
low: -0.408
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.598
Price To Book QoQ 3.23 %
Price To Book YoY 8.203 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 22.471
median: 22.16
mean: 18.269
ACLS: 2.598
low: 1.119
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 58.735
Price To Earnings QoQ -14.197 %
Price To Earnings YoY 20.38 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 422.129
median: 144.216
mean: 139.714
ACLS: 58.735
low: -305.594
 PE/G Ratio 2.538
 Price To Sales (P/S) 11.279
Price To Sales QoQ -6.158 %
Price To Sales YoY 17.075 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 71.828
median: 45.349
mean: 41.144
ACLS: 11.279
low: 3.695
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 74.051
Forward PE/G 3.2
Forward P/S 44.659
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 2.72
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.176
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 10.02 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -6.498 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.471
mean: 0.207
median: 0.203
ACLS: 0.176
low: 0.002
 Receivables Turnover 1.508
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.111 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 15.5 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.317
mean: 1.789
median: 1.515
ACLS: 1.508
low: 0.498
 Inventory Turnover 0.387
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -1.552 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -18.581 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.239
mean: 0.518
median: 0.401
ACLS: 0.387
low: 0.174
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 60.516
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 264.715
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -9.767 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 22.066 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 596.302
median: 270.338
ACLS: 264.715
mean: 251.517
low: -64.288
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.32
 CapEx To Revenue -0.01
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.523
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.0 B
 Invested Capital 1.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.0 B
 Net Working Capital 745.5 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.893
 Current Ratio 4.772
Current Ratio QoQ -3.504 %
Current Ratio YoY -11.868 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 10.619
ACLS: 4.772
median: 2.256
mean: 2.154
low: 1.126
 Quick Ratio 3.107
Quick Ratio QoQ -6.27 %
Quick Ratio YoY -23.36 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 7.834
ACLS: 3.107
median: 1.606
mean: 1.511
low: 0.791
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 0.924
 Cost Of Debt 2.626 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 30.954
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 28.42 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -25.565 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 99.429
mean: 34.374
median: 32.93
ACLS: 30.954
low: -143.241
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.016
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 34.647
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.696 %
 Revenue Growth 11.572 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 18.07 %
Revenue Growth YoY -816.089 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 40.838 %
mean: 12.78 %
ACLS: 11.572 %
median: 2.725 %
low: -9.892 %
 Earnings Growth 23.14 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 226.836 %
Earnings Growth YoY 589.511 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 266.667 %
ACLS: 23.14 %
mean: 17.361 %
median: 0.794 %
low: -85.714 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 46.965 %
Gross Margin QoQ 12.967 %
Gross Margin YoY 2.0 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 90.758 %
mean: 52.467 %
median: 52.156 %
ACLS: 46.965 %
low: 9.383 %
 EBIT Margin 17.352 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 17.84 %
EBIT Margin YoY -27.111 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 42.46 %
median: 35.306 %
mean: 34.885 %
ACLS: 17.352 %
low: -49.18 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 15.177 %
Return On Sales QoQ 29.574 %
Return On Sales YoY -36.247 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 69.122 %
median: 35.306 %
mean: 34.249 %
ACLS: 15.177 %
low: -49.18 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -8.90 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -0.331 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -119.609 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -199.102 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 2.925 %
mean: 1.47 %
median: 1.229 %
ACLS: -0.331 %
low: -0.444 %
 Free Cash Growth -120.542 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -913.429 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 49.571 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 500.136 %
median: -0.341 %
mean: -8.356 %
ACLS: -120.542 %
low: -360.935 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.26
 Cash Flow Margin 1.297 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.09
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 2.528 %
Return On Assets QoQ 30.108 %
Return On Assets YoY -32.006 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.364 %
mean: 6.047 %
median: 5.937 %
ACLS: 2.528 %
low: -7.635 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 3.554 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.033
Return On Equity QoQ 30.153 %
Return On Equity YoY -32.8 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.21
median: 0.145
mean: 0.141
ACLS: 0.033
low: -0.241
 DuPont ROE 3.338 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 3.425 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 28.856 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -135.306 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 11.139 %
median: 10.618 %
mean: 9.024 %
ACLS: 3.425 %
low: -2.702 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect range-bound swings with potential for selective upside if MACD momentum sustains above its signal line and volume picks up. Technical posture favors mean reversion toward the WMDST fair-value anchor while liquidity strengths reduce downside tail risk. Key near-term triggers include follow-through above the 50-day average (~$87.87) or a breakdown under the 20-day support (~$83.95). Volatility and earnings-season headlines could accelerate moves; monitor momentum indicators for confirmation before increasing exposure.

About Axcelis Technologies, Inc.

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACLS) is a distinguished entity in the semiconductor sector, headquartered in Beverly, Massachusetts since 1978. The company is renowned for its expertise in designing and producing ion implantation systems, which are crucial for the fabrication of semiconductor chips. Axcelis serves a global clientele, including regions such as the United States, Japan, Europe, and the Asia Pacific, with a diverse portfolio of high energy, high current, and medium current implanters to accommodate various technological demands. In addition to its state-of-the-art equipment, Axcelis is dedicated to providing a comprehensive suite of aftermarket services. This includes offering refurbished machinery, spare parts, equipment upgrades, and extensive maintenance solutions, ensuring the longevity and efficiency of their products. The company also emphasizes customer education through specialized training programs, empowering clients to maximize the potential of their investments. Axcelis employs a direct sales strategy to connect with semiconductor manufacturers worldwide, prioritizing customer satisfaction and innovation. By continually pushing the boundaries of semiconductor manufacturing technology, Axcelis Technologies solidifies its position as a leader and innovator in the industry.



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