Alamo Group Inc. (NYSE:ALG) Momentum Weakens While Liquidity and Cash Flow Support Rebound Potential

Alamo shows clear margin compression and short-term momentum loss, while a strong cash position and positive free cash flow create a valuation cushion. Near-term price action will likely follow technical momentum until a decisive momentum shift occurs.

Recent News

January 26, 2026: Alamo completed the acquisition of Petersen Industries, expanding its bulky-waste grapple equipment lineup. Early March 2026: the board raised the regular quarterly dividend to $0.34 per share. Management signaled a portfolio review and plans to divest or discontinue select smaller product lines within Vegetation Management during 2026.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show trend strength without ambiguity: ADX at 39.39 indicates a strong trend in place. Given the directional readings, the trend strength amplifies current directional bias rather than indicating direction itself.

DI+ at 14.78 and decreasing while DI- at 29.73 and increasing. That combination signals a clear bearish directional bias and reinforces downward price pressure against the valuation backdrop.

MACD sits negative at -6.08 with the MACD trend decreasing and the signal line at -1.47. Negative, falling MACD indicates continuing bearish momentum; no bullish MACD crossover exists to suggest immediate momentum recovery.

MRO equals -19.23 and is decreasing. A negative MRO implies the price sits below its model target, implying potential for price appreciation over time; the declining MRO deepens that gap and increases modeled upside potential relative to the current price level.

RSI at 51.69 and decreasing presents neutral-to-mildly-weak momentum; the recent decline suggests buyers lost short-term control, leaving the path of least resistance downward until momentum stabilizes.

Price sits below key averages: the close at $170.15 under the 20-day average $191.15, 50-day $193.49 and 200-day $196.16, and the 12-day EMA is decreasing at $182.88. Ichimoku components (Tenkan/Kijun at $189.29; Senkou A/B at $184.95/$176.12) remain above price, reinforcing short-term technical resistance levels.

Bollinger bands range from $166.95 (lower 1x) to $215.34 (upper 1x); current price trades marginally above the lower 1x band, indicating proximity to the short-term lower dispersion boundary but not an extreme oversold reading. Volume averages show the last session in line with the 10-day average and above the 50-day average, suggesting active participation while momentum trends lower.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $373.65 million with YoY revenue growth of 1.77% but a steep quarterly decline of -48.81% QoQ, signaling lumpy near-term sales cadence. Gross profit reached $85.001 million, and gross margin equals 22.75%, down 4.50% YoY and 6.03% QoQ, pointing to material margin compression.

Operating income $22.531 million yields an operating margin of 6.03%, and EBIT stood at $25.408 million for an EBIT margin of 6.80%, down 26.49% QoQ and 30.92% YoY. The EBIT margin falls below the industry peer mean of 16.15% and the industry peer median of 16.48%, indicating weaker operating profitability versus peers.

Reported EPS equaled $1.70 versus an estimate of $2.30, an EPS shortfall of $0.60 or -26.09% (EPS surprise ratio -26.09%). Earnings growth registered -27.35% and return on equity sits at 1.35%, well below the industry peer mean return on equity of 10.67% and the median of 11.27%.

Balance sheet and cash-flow metrics offset profitability concerns. Cash and short-term investments total $309.66 million with a cash ratio of 1.42 and a current ratio of 4.57, both exceeding the industry peer mean current ratio of 1.46; net debt remains modest with total debt $211.89 million and debt-to-equity of 0.18, below the industry peer mean of 1.91. Operating cash flow was $75.119 million and free cash flow $68.129 million, producing a free cash flow yield of 2.90%, above the industry peer mean of 1.10%.

Valuation context: WMDST values the stock as under-valued. Contrasting signals appear: compressed margins and an EPS miss weaken near-term earnings outlook, while strong liquidity, low leverage, and positive free cash flow support the under-valued determination. Enterprise multiple sits at 56.85 versus an industry peer mean of 78.05, which also contributes to the under-valued assessment without implying peer-relative operational parity.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-03-02
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-06-01
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 244.8 M
 Operating Cash Flow 75.1 M
 Capital Expenditures -6.99 M
 Change In Working Capital 43.7 M
 Dividends Paid -3.61 M
 Cash Flow Delta 64.9 M
 End Period Cash Flow 309.7 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 373.6 M
 Forward Revenue 209.3 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 288.6 M
 Depreciation 10.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 14.2 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 351.1 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 85.0 M
 EBITDA 39.6 M
 EBIT 25.4 M
 Operating Income 22.5 M
 Interest Income 1.6 M
 Interest Expense 4.1 M
 Net Interest Income -2.49 M
 Income Before Tax 21.3 M
 Tax Provision 5.8 M
 Tax Rate 27.194 %
 Net Income 15.5 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 15.5 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 2.30
 EPS Actual 1.70
 EPS Difference -0.60
 EPS Surprise -26.087 %
 Forward EPS 2.88
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.6 B
 Intangible Assets 359.5 M
 Net Tangible Assets 789.2 M
 Total Current Assets 998.1 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 309.7 M
 Cash 309.7 M
 Net Receivables 276.9 M
 Inventory 383.3 M
 Long-Term Investments 20.6 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 125.1 M
 Short-Term Debt 15.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 218.4 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 211.9 M
 Total Liabilities 457.9 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.1 B
 Retained Earnings 1.0 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 95.14
 Shares Outstanding 12.074 M
 Revenue Per-Share 30.95
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 2.3 B
 Enterprise Value 2.3 B
 Enterprise Multiple 56.853
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 30.001 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 42.986 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 81.536
median: 81.536
mean: 78.053
ALG: 56.853
low: 4.839
 EV/R 6.022
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.399
 Asset To Liability 3.509
 Debt To Capital 0.156
 Debt To Assets 0.132
Debt To Assets QoQ 0.442 %
Debt To Assets YoY 1174.3 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.714
median: 0.44
mean: 0.423
ALG: 0.132
low: 0.051
 Debt To Equity 0.184
Debt To Equity QoQ -0.243 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1151.425 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.033
median: 2.033
mean: 1.911
ALG: 0.184
low: 0.147
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.044
Price To Book QoQ -1.089 %
Price To Book YoY -6.76 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 12.782
median: 12.782
mean: 11.957
ALG: 2.044
low: -1.325
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 114.392
Price To Earnings QoQ 38.067 %
Price To Earnings YoY 43.492 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA ALG: 114.392
high: 113.496
median: 113.496
mean: 109.65
low: 50.547
 PE/G Ratio -4.183
 Price To Sales (P/S) 6.284
Price To Sales QoQ 12.772 %
Price To Sales YoY 8.471 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 14.242
median: 14.242
mean: 13.537
ALG: 6.284
low: 0.493
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 61.301
Forward PE/G -2.241
Forward P/S 11.22
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3.133
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.233
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -12.407 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -11.207 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.549
ALG: 0.233
mean: 0.206
median: 0.199
low: 0.127
 Receivables Turnover 1.221
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.491 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 4.909 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 21.203
ALG: 1.221
mean: 1.149
low: 0.91
median: 0.91
 Inventory Turnover 0.758
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -10.663 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -7.612 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.868
mean: 0.764
ALG: 0.758
median: 0.736
low: 0.05
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 74.738
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 147.397
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -1.636 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -7.557 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 173.854
median: 173.854
mean: 165.786
ALG: 147.397
low: 5.328
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.479
 CapEx To Revenue -0.019
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.702
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.4 B
 Invested Capital 1.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets 789.2 M
 Net Working Capital 779.7 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.418
 Current Ratio 4.571
Current Ratio QoQ 3.169 %
Current Ratio YoY 1.441 %
Current Ratio IPRWA ALG: 4.571
high: 1.94
mean: 1.464
median: 1.436
low: 1.305
 Quick Ratio 2.816
Quick Ratio QoQ 3.529 %
Quick Ratio YoY 4.222 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA ALG: 2.816
high: 1.212
median: 0.94
mean: 0.938
low: 0.055
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 5.354
 Cost Of Debt 1.418 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 6.194
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -37.875 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -43.287 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 25.19
median: 24.827
mean: 23.24
low: 6.88
ALG: 6.194
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.361
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 36.463
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 4.297
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.233
 Dividend Rate 0.30
 Dividend Yield 0.002
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.73 %
 Revenue Growth -11.045 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -4881.385 %
Revenue Growth YoY 177.373 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 8.476 %
median: 8.476 %
mean: 7.867 %
ALG: -11.045 %
low: -18.634 %
 Earnings Growth -27.35 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 205.621 %
Earnings Growth YoY -1347.15 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 5.063 %
median: 4.242 %
mean: 1.409 %
ALG: -27.35 %
low: -30.286 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 22.749 %
Gross Margin QoQ -6.027 %
Gross Margin YoY -4.5 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 86.15 %
mean: 28.757 %
median: 28.615 %
ALG: 22.749 %
low: 15.443 %
 EBIT Margin 6.8 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -26.486 %
EBIT Margin YoY -30.922 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 23.338 %
median: 16.479 %
mean: 16.152 %
low: 7.149 %
ALG: 6.8 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 6.03 %
Return On Sales QoQ -32.535 %
Return On Sales YoY -38.744 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 57.975 %
mean: 13.916 %
median: 13.903 %
low: 7.149 %
ALG: 6.03 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 68.1 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 2.902 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 27.954 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -11.145 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 6.119 %
ALG: 2.902 %
mean: 1.101 %
low: 0.825 %
median: 0.825 %
 Free Cash Growth 28.342 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -88.047 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -261.631 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 38.224 %
ALG: 28.342 %
mean: -13.025 %
median: -15.641 %
low: -48.539 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 4.392
 Cash Flow Margin 21.082 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 5.078
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.969 %
Return On Assets QoQ -39.814 %
Return On Assets YoY -49.426 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.853 %
median: 2.498 %
mean: 2.444 %
low: 1.344 %
ALG: 0.969 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.83 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.013
Return On Equity QoQ -39.759 %
Return On Equity YoY -51.051 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.113
median: 0.113
mean: 0.107
low: 0.03
ALG: 0.013
 DuPont ROE 1.36 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.366 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -35.353 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -108.055 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.308 %
median: 3.73 %
mean: 3.717 %
low: 2.435 %
ALG: 1.366 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical momentum should dominate price action in the next six weeks. The combination of a strong ADX and rising DI- alongside declining MACD and RSI points to continued downside pressure or consolidation below key moving averages. That pressure could persist until MACD stabilizes or DI+/DI- dynamics shift toward DI+ stability. Offsetting factors include a negative MRO and the WMDST under-valued determination, which imply an eventual valuation-driven bid if macro and sector flows stabilize.

Watch for confirmation of a momentum shift—MACD crossing above its signal line or RSI recovering decisively above 60—before expecting a sustained change in near-term price bias. Meanwhile, the company’s cash cushion, low leverage, and recent corporate actions (acquisition and dividend increase) provide fundamental support should the technical sell-off reach deeper levels.

About Alamo Group Inc.

Alamo Group Inc. (NYSE:ALG) engineers, manufactures, distributes, and services equipment vital for vegetation management and infrastructure maintenance on a global scale. Founded in 1955 and headquartered in Seguin, Texas, the company divides its operations into two main segments: Vegetation Management and Industrial Equipment. In the Vegetation Management segment, Alamo Group delivers a diverse array of products including hydraulically-powered mowers, tractor-mounted mowers, and heavy-duty cutting equipment. This segment also offers essential agricultural tools such as rotary tillers and posthole diggers, addressing the needs of both governmental and industrial clients. The Industrial Equipment segment focuses on providing solutions for infrastructure upkeep. Products include truck-mounted air vacuum systems, mechanical broom sweepers, and pothole patchers. Alamo Group also supplies robust snow removal and ice control equipment, ensuring functionality in various weather conditions. Alamo Group Inc. prioritizes quality and innovation, consistently delivering reliable equipment and superior service. By offering an extensive product range and maintaining a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, the company remains a trusted partner in enhancing and maintaining urban and rural environments worldwide.



© 2026 WMDST — The World’s Most Dangerous Swing Trader. All rights reserved.