Rocky Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:RCKY) Signals Short-Term Momentum Roll While WMDST Sees Under-Valuation

Rocky Brands trades below the WMDST-assessed fair value even as recent momentum indicators show signs of peaking. Near-term price action will likely hinge on whether momentum reverses fully or the prevailing structural uptrend absorbs the weakening signals.

Recent News

Feb 17, 2026 — Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.155 per share. Jan 7, 2026 — Rocky Brands confirmed participation in the 2026 ICR Conference. Feb 3, 2026 — Rocky Brands named a Bronze winner in the 2026 Stevie Awards customer-service recognition as a Talkdesk customer. Industry reporting noted planned incremental digital marketing investments and an intent to reduce inventory units by $10M–$15M during 2026.

Technical Analysis

The directional system shows a strong trend (ADX 35.9) accompanied by a bearish directional bias: DI+ registered a peak-and-reversal while DI- moved higher, which together indicate sellers gaining edge versus buyers in directional terms.

MACD sits above its signal line (MACD 3.10 vs signal 2.53), creating a short-term bullish trigger; however, the recorded MACD trend is a peak-and-reversal, warning that bullish momentum may be rolling over rather than expanding.

MRO at 36.32 reads positive, signaling the current price sits above the modeled target and therefore carries a propensity to retrace toward that target level; the magnitude suggests substantive downside potential if momentum shifts confirm.

RSI stands at 62.18 with a peak-and-reversal pattern, indicating recent strength has reached a local high and the oscillator now hints at a pullback probability rather than continued immediate expansion.

Price sits at $43.55, above the short- and long-term averages: 12-day EMA $42.30 (increasing), 20-day avg $41.07, 50-day avg $34.41 and 200-day avg $28.80, which defines a bullish structural backdrop. SuperTrend lower at $42.80 acts as near-term support; the upper Bollinger 1x band sits near $47.76 and will operate as the first defined resistance band.

Liquidity and volatility profile: daily volume ~97,428 slightly above its 10-day average (~94,126) and well above the 50/200-day averages, signaling elevated participation on recent moves. Short-term beta at 1.95 versus a 52-week beta of 1.22 points to higher recent sensitivity to market swings.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Reported EPS of $0.94 exceeded the $0.49 estimate by $0.45, an EPS surprise of 91.84%, reflecting a material beat in the reported period. Forward EPS arrives at $1.0225 with a forward P/E of 28.76; the trailing P/E registers at 33.57, implying some expected earnings improvement priced into forward multiples.

Earnings-growth metrics show contraction on shorter horizons: the headline earnings growth figure reads -8.74%, with quarter-over-quarter earnings growth at -110.01% and year-over-year earnings growth at -116.02% as reported. Revenue growth entries show 0.0% on the primary measure, with a quarter-over-quarter figure of -100.00% and year-over-year -100.00% in the provided fields.

PEG stands at -3.84, which sits below the industry peer mean and median for PEG (industry peer mean roughly -0.21 and median roughly 0.38), indicating a more negative growth-adjusted multiple versus peers. Trailing P/E (33.57) remains below the industry peer mean P/E (~90.09) on the available peer snapshot, suggesting relative valuation compression versus the peer average. Cost of debt measures low at 1.41%; invested capital totals $137,909,000. Cash-flow lines report zero in the cash conversion fields provided.

Price targets from consensus span a low of $23.51, a mean near $70.65 and a high at $104.48; WMDST values the stock as under-valued. Taken together, the company shows a mix of a strong brand-driven structural position and short-horizon weakness in earnings growth metrics, while multiples place current market pricing below many peer averages on several measures.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-24
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-26
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INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
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EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate $ 0.49
 EPS Actual $ 0.94
 EPS Difference $ 0.45
 EPS Surprise 91.837 %
 Forward EPS $ 1.02
 
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EQUITY
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VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
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VALUATION
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CAPITAL STRUCTURE
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PRICE-BASED VALUATION
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 Price To Earnings (P/E) 33.566
Price To Earnings QoQ 24.894 %
Price To Earnings YoY 67.087 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 125.538
median: 125.538
mean: 90.091
RCKY: 33.566
low: -7.846
 PE/G Ratio -3.841
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FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 28.757
Forward PE/G -3.291
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EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
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ASSET & SALES
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CASH CYCLE
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Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 338.107
mean: 102.513
median: 95.506
low: 40.976
RCKY: 0
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
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CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
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 Invested Capital $ 137.9 M
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LIQUIDITY
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COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
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 Cost Of Debt 1.41 %
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PERFORMANCE GROWTH
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 Revenue Growth 0.0 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -100.0 %
Revenue Growth YoY -100.0 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 61.21 %
mean: 14.645 %
median: 6.032 %
RCKY: 0.0 %
low: -12.568 %
 Earnings Growth -8.738 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -110.012 %
Earnings Growth YoY -116.02 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 223.077 %
mean: 26.673 %
median: 8.163 %
RCKY: -8.738 %
low: -44.737 %
MARGINS
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 Cash Flow Margin 0.0 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.0
VALUE & RETURNS
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Six-Week Outlook

Near-term conditions favor a guarded, mean-reversion environment for swing traders: the structural uptrend provides support with the 12-day EMA and SuperTrend lower near $42–$43, but momentum indicators (MACD peak-and-reversal, MRO positive, RSI peak) point to an elevated probability of a corrective pullback before any sustained leg higher. Expect price to oscillate within the $42–$48 band as participation remains above recent averages and short-term volatility stays elevated; a decisive momentum re-acceleration would need confirmation from improving oscillator behavior and DI+/DI- realignment.

About Rocky Brands, Inc.

Rocky Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:RCKY) designs, manufactures, and markets a diverse range of footwear and apparel, catering to various consumer needs across the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through three primary segments: Wholesale, Retail, and Contract Manufacturing. The Wholesale segment distributes products through sporting goods stores, outdoor retailers, independent shoe retailers, and other specialty and mass merchant outlets. The Retail segment reaches consumers directly through its branded websites, including rockyboots.com, georgiaboot.com, durangoboot.com, and several others, as well as through third-party marketplaces and Rocky Outdoor Gear Stores. The Contract Manufacturing segment handles private label sales and custom manufacturing for clients, including the U.S. Military. Rocky Brands serves a wide array of customers, from industrial and construction workers to hospitality staff, farmers, ranchers, and outdoor enthusiasts. The company markets its products under several well-known brand names, such as Rocky, Georgia Boot, Durango, Lehigh, Muck, XTRATUF, Servus, Ranger, and Michelin. Founded in 1932 and headquartered in Nelsonville, Ohio, Rocky Brands continues to deliver quality and durable products to its diverse clientele.



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