Raymond James Financial, Inc. (NYSE:RJF) Poised For Near-Term Pressure Amid Weak Momentum

Raymond James enters a period of cautious momentum with mixed fundamental signals and elevated valuation metrics. Near-term price action likely stays constrained until momentum and cash-generation dynamics re-align with the firm's capital-return cadence.

Recent News

Dec. 3, 2025: Board raised the quarterly common dividend to $0.54 per share and authorized a $2.0 billion common stock repurchase program; Series B preferred shares scheduled for redemption in early January 2026. Jan. 15, 2026: Raymond James agreed to acquire Clark Capital Management Group, a $46 billion asset manager, with closing expected by the third calendar quarter of 2026.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show a clear bearish tilt: ADX at 25.77 signals a strong directional market, while DI− at 26.79 (increasing) and DI+ at 12.73 (decreasing) indicate that sellers presently dominate directional force and strengthen the near-term downside bias.

MACD sits negative at −2.37 and trends downward; the MACD line remains below the signal line (MACD signal −1.13), indicating ongoing bearish momentum and little immediate bullish crossover risk.

MRO reads −17.29 with a reported dip & reversal. The negative MRO implies price sits below the model target and carries potential for mean reversion higher; the dip & reversal suggests a recent shift toward corrective upward pressure, which could produce transient rallies against the prevailing bearish momentum.

RSI at 47.33 and decreasing reflects weakening internal momentum without reaching classical oversold territory, supporting a cautious outlook for sustained rallies until RSI stabilizes above mid-range readings.

Price sits below most trend averages: close $153.13 trades beneath the 20‑day ($162.22), 50‑day ($165.32) and 200‑day ($160.95) averages, with the 12‑day EMA declining. This alignment places short- and medium-term moving averages above price, reinforcing downside pressure against the valuation backdrop.

Price resides under the 1× Bollinger lower band ($155.08), which highlights short-term dispersion and the potential for a technical bounce; however, the broader combination of declining EMAs, negative MACD, and ADX-confirmed trend argues that such bounces may remain corrective rather than trend-defining.

Volume at 1,379,402 sits below the 10‑day average (1,927,363) while above the 200‑day average (1,189,868), suggesting lower participation into recent moves; lower-than-short-term-average volume on downward pressure typically reduces conviction for immediate trend reversals.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings: Reported EPS $2.86 versus estimate $2.83, a 1.06% beat (EPS surprise ratio 0.0106) on the report dated 2026‑01‑28; trailing twelve‑month net income $563,000,000. Forward EPS stands at $3.44 with a forward PE of 47.35.

Revenue and growth: Trailing revenue $3,672,000,000 with YoY revenue growth 3.61% and QoQ revenue growth −47.53%, reflecting marked seasonality or quarter-to-quarter timing effects rather than outright secular decline; analysts and traders should treat the QoQ drop as a seasonality flag to reconcile with annualized trends.

Profitability and returns: Return on equity 4.51% and return on assets 0.64%, both down QoQ (ROE QoQ −7.30%; ROA QoQ −8.88%) and down YoY (ROE YoY −11.03%; ROA YoY −12.40%), indicating compressing operating leverage versus the prior period despite positive YoY earnings growth of 10.86%.

Cash flow and balance sheet: Operating cash flow near breakeven ($‑10,000,000) and free cash flow negative at −$56,000,000 produce a free cash flow yield of −0.17%; cash holdings total $9,890,000,000 with total debt $4,221,000,000 and debt‑to‑assets 4.76%, leaving capital structure relatively conservative but showing a negative free cash conversion trend QoQ and YoY.

Capital returns and coverage: Dividend payout ratio 19.89% with dividend coverage 5.03, and dividends paid $‑112,000,000. The recent dividend increase and $2.0 billion buyback authorization (see news) raise near‑term cash outflow requirements that intersect with negative free cash flow and lower conversion metrics.

Valuation context: Trailing PE 57.68 sits below the industry peer mean PE of 80.08 but above the industry peer median PE of 42.17. Price‑to‑book of 2.60 exceeds the industry peer mean of 1.00 and tops the industry peer high of 1.29, indicating material premium to peers on a book basis. WMDST values the stock as over‑valued based on these inputs and the firm’s cash‑flow trajectory.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-01-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-04-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow $ 14.8 B
 Operating Cash Flow $ -10.00 M
 Capital Expenditures $ -46.00 M
 Change In Working Capital $ -838.00 M
 Dividends Paid $ -112.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta $ -1.22 B
 End Period Cash Flow $ 13.6 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue $ 3.7 B
 Forward Revenue $ 1.1 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue —
 Depreciation $ 49.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization $ 49.0 M
 Research and Development —
 Total Operating Expenses —
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit —
 EBITDA —
 EBIT —
 Operating Income —
 Interest Income $ 1.0 B
 Interest Expense $ 441.0 M
 Net Interest Income $ 566.0 M
 Income Before Tax $ 728.0 M
 Tax Provision $ 165.0 M
 Tax Rate 22.665 %
 Net Income $ 563.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations $ 563.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate $ 2.83
 EPS Actual $ 2.86
 EPS Difference $ 0.03
 EPS Surprise 1.06 %
 Forward EPS $ 3.44
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets $ 88.8 B
 Intangible Assets $ 1.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets $ 10.7 B
 Total Current Assets —
 Cash and Short-Term Investments —
 Cash $ 9.9 B
 Net Receivables $ 3.0 B
 Inventory —
 Long-Term Investments —
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable $ 6.1 B
 Short-Term Debt —
 Total Current Liabilities —
 Net Debt —
 Total Debt $ 4.2 B
 Total Liabilities $ 76.2 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity $ 12.5 B
 Retained Earnings $ 14.1 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share $ 63.40
 Shares Outstanding 197.032 M
 Revenue Per-Share $ 18.64
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization $ 32.5 B
 Enterprise Value $ 36.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple —
Enterprise Multiple QoQ —
Enterprise Multiple YoY —
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA —
 EV/R 10.001
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 7.106
 Asset To Liability 1.165
 Debt To Capital 0.253
 Debt To Assets 0.048
Debt To Assets QoQ -0.564 %
Debt To Assets YoY 26.692 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.639
median: 0.264
mean: 0.258
RJF: 0.048
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 0.338
Debt To Equity QoQ -0.515 %
Debt To Equity YoY 29.566 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.851
mean: 0.573
median: 0.529
RJF: 0.338
low: -0.995
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.602
Price To Book QoQ -0.819 %
Price To Book YoY -3.567 %
Price To Book IPRWA RJF: 2.602
high: 1.289
mean: 1.002
median: 0.982
low: 0.766
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 57.678
Price To Earnings QoQ 9.041 %
Price To Earnings YoY 8.182 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 155.319
mean: 80.083
RJF: 57.678
median: 42.167
low: 13.973
 PE/G Ratio -7.175
 Price To Sales (P/S) 8.851
Price To Sales QoQ -0.421 %
Price To Sales YoY -3.506 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 71.015
mean: 26.629
median: 25.567
RJF: 8.851
low: -39.474
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 47.351
Forward PE/G -5.89
Forward P/S 29.42
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage —
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.041
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -2.1 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -1.589 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.186
mean: 0.063
median: 0.058
RJF: 0.041
low: -0.007
 Receivables Turnover 1.27
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -0.626 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -2.278 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 10.353
mean: 4.396
median: 2.35
RJF: 1.27
low: 0.188
 Inventory Turnover —
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ —
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY —
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA —
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 71.842
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA —
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio —
 CapEx To Revenue -0.013
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.939
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital $ 16.8 B
 Net Invested Capital $ 16.7 B
 Invested Capital $ 16.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets $ 10.7 B
 Net Working Capital —
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio —
 Current Ratio —
Current Ratio QoQ —
Current Ratio YoY —
Current Ratio IPRWA —
 Quick Ratio —
Quick Ratio QoQ —
Quick Ratio YoY —
Quick Ratio IPRWA —
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA —
 Cost Of Debt 10.763 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio —
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ —
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY —
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA —
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio —
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) —
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 5.027
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.199
 Dividend Rate $ 0.57
 Dividend Yield 0.003
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.601 %
 Revenue Growth 9.725 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -4753.11 %
Revenue Growth YoY 360.9 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 29.123 %
RJF: 9.725 %
median: 3.258 %
mean: 1.225 %
low: -54.736 %
 Earnings Growth -8.039 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -118.844 %
Earnings Growth YoY 1085.693 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 45.455 %
mean: 3.779 %
median: -2.041 %
RJF: -8.039 %
low: -27.966 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin —
Gross Margin QoQ —
Gross Margin YoY —
Gross Margin IPRWA —
 EBIT Margin —
EBIT Margin QoQ —
EBIT Margin YoY —
EBIT Margin IPRWA —
 Return On Sales (ROS) —
Return On Sales QoQ —
Return On Sales YoY —
Return On Sales IPRWA —
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) $ -56.00 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -0.172 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -107.456 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -106.966 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 16.184 %
mean: 3.071 %
median: 1.7 %
RJF: -0.172 %
low: -7.326 %
 Free Cash Growth -107.447 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -677.3 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -250.229 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 252.632 %
mean: 88.469 %
median: 8.471 %
RJF: -107.447 %
low: -224.824 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.099
 Cash Flow Margin 19.145 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.249
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added $ 0.05
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.636 %
Return On Assets QoQ -8.883 %
Return On Assets YoY -12.397 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.764 %
median: 0.945 %
mean: 0.726 %
RJF: 0.636 %
low: -2.335 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) —
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.045
Return On Equity QoQ -7.302 %
Return On Equity YoY -11.034 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.094
RJF: 0.045
median: 0.029
mean: 0.019
low: -0.045
 DuPont ROE 4.519 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) —
Return On Invested Capital QoQ —
Return On Invested Capital YoY —
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA —

Six-Week Outlook

Near term shows asymmetric risk: technicals point to continued downside pressure while MRO’s negative reading and dip & reversal leave room for short-lived recoveries. Expect price to trade with limited upside until momentum indicators stabilize (MACD flattens and RSI re-claims mid‑50s) or until capital‑return activity and cash‑flow figures show clearer alignment with the dividend and buyback schedule.

Key market behavior to monitor over the next six weeks: whether DI− cools and DI+ halts its decline, MACD forms a constructive cross above the signal line, and free cash flow trends improve. Until those shifts occur, the path of least resistance favors controlled downside and choppy corrective rallies rather than sustained appreciation.

About Raymond James Financial, Inc.

Raymond James Financial, Inc. (NYSE:RJF) delivers a comprehensive suite of financial services across private client group, capital markets, asset management, and banking sectors. Catering to individuals, corporations, and municipalities, the firm operates in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment provides investment services, portfolio management, insurance and annuity products, mutual funds, and support services for third-party mutual fund and annuity companies. Additionally, this segment offers margin loans, securities borrowing and lending, and custodial services, along with trade execution and research support. In the Capital Markets segment, Raymond James delivers investment banking services, including equity and debt underwriting, merger and acquisition advisory, and brokerage services for fixed income and equity. This segment also handles institutional sales, securities trading, and equity research, while managing investments in low-income housing funds. The Asset Management segment offers asset and portfolio management services to retail and institutional clients, complemented by administrative support. The Bank segment provides a range of loans, insured deposit accounts, and liquidity management products. Founded in 1962 and headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida, Raymond James Financial, Inc. continues to expand its financial service offerings.



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