Guild Holdings Company, NYSE:GHLD Accelerates Profitability But Near-Term Momentum Weakens

Robust quarter-level profitability and a material EPS beat contrast with slipping technical momentum, producing a near-term bias toward consolidation even as valuation metrics support continued investor interest.

Recent News

On November 11, 2025, Guild Mortgage earned Gold status as a Military Friendly® Employer for 2026, marking the third time the company received that recognition and highlighting ongoing workforce and recruitment initiatives.

Technical Analysis

ADX sits at 23.1, indicating an emerging directional strength while the directional indicators diverge: DI+ at 20.16 trends downward and DI- at 17.13 trends upward. That configuration signals bearish directional pressure building against an only-emerging trend, implying near-term downside bias against the company’s current valuation.

MACD reads slightly negative with a declining trajectory (MACD ~ -0.0; signal 0.01), which denotes falling bullish momentum. The absence of a MACD crossover above the signal line removes a common bullish confirmation, reinforcing the case for consolidation before any meaningful upside continuation.

MRO sits at 20.07 with a peak-and-reversal pattern; the positive value indicates the market price currently sits above WMDST’s target and therefore carries downward force. That dynamic aligns with the weakening momentum and elevates the probability of mean reversion toward valuation support areas.

RSI at 53.41 and trending lower suggests momentum moved off a neutral zone toward modest selling pressure rather than oversold conditions, so price stability depends on restoration of momentum rather than relief from an oversold impulse.

Price trades around $19.87, tightly compressed against the 20-day averages and the lower Bollinger band near $19.87–$19.82, indicating limited short-term volatility but susceptibility to a decisive directional move if momentum picks up. Short-term exponential moving averages (12- and 26-day EMAs near $19.89–$19.90 and trending down) sit marginally above price, adding friction to upside attempts, while the 200-day average at $16.85 provides a longer-term support context below current levels.

Ichimoku components (Tenkan/Kijun ~ $19.91; Senkou A ~$19.94; Senkou B ~$21.44) place price at or slightly below the near-term cloud boundary, implying that momentum must re-accelerate to clear the cloud and re-establish directional conviction. Low volume relative to 10/50/200-day averages reduces conviction behind intraday moves and increases the importance of a clear momentum shift to validate larger swings.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Guild reported EPS of $0.75 versus an estimate of $0.53, producing a 41.51% EPS surprise and signaling stronger-than-expected profitability for the period. Net income reached $33.326M, and adjusted measures reported in the quarter demonstrate improved operational leverage in origination and servicing activities.

Revenue totaled $314.716M with YoY revenue growth of 8.40% and a QoQ contraction in revenue growth of -80.275% (reflecting seasonal and quarter-to-quarter origination timing). Free cash flow amounted to $77.034M, yielding 6.32% free cash flow yield; that yield sits above the industry peer mean for free cash flow yield. WMDST values the stock as under-valued given the company’s cash generation and adjusted earnings performance.

Valuation multiples present a mixed picture: price-to-book at 0.98 sits below the industry peer mean and slightly above the industry peer median, while price-to-earnings at 36.93 falls below the industry peer mean and above the industry peer median. Price-to-sales at 3.87 sits well below the industry peer mean and median, suggesting revenue gets priced conservatively relative to peers.

Profitability and efficiency metrics show strengths and weaknesses. Asset turnover stands at 6.21% and exceeds the industry peer mean and median, indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue. Return on assets at 0.66% sits above the industry peer mean and median, while return on equity at 2.69% falls below the industry peer mean and median. Earnings growth reads -19.70% overall, with steep quarter-over-quarter swings; those dynamics reflect volatility in mortgage origination margins and timing rather than a structural profitability collapse.

Leverage sits elevated relative to industry peers: debt-to-assets at 18.45% and debt-to-equity at 76.03% both exceed the industry peer mean and median, increasing sensitivity to funding costs despite a moderate cost of debt near 2.32%. Enterprise value totals $2,159,019,942 against market capitalization of $1,218,444,942, producing an EV-to-revenue ratio near 6.86. Cash on hand measured $106.401M and operating cash flow reached $78.852M, supporting liquidity while servicing and warehouse facilities manage funding flows.

QoQ and YoY movements warrant attention: P/B expanded roughly 3.95% QoQ and about 20.89% YoY, while P/E grew roughly 37.42% QoQ and 22.62% YoY, reflecting multiple expansion tied to improved earnings and cash generation. Free cash flow yield contracted QoQ and YoY, but absolute free cash generation remains positive.

Brief valuation note: stronger-than-expected EPS and above-peer free cash flow yield underpin WMDST’s under-valued designation, but elevated leverage and uneven earnings growth introduce execution risk that valuation already discounts to some extent.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-04
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow $ 114.4 M
 Operating Cash Flow $ 78.9 M
 Capital Expenditures $ -1.82 M
 Change In Working Capital $ -21.22 M
 Dividends Paid $ -15.56 M
 Cash Flow Delta $ 2.3 M
 End Period Cash Flow $ 116.7 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue $ 314.7 M
 Forward Revenue $ 64.7 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue —
 Depreciation $ 8.6 M
 Depreciation and Amortization $ 8.6 M
 Research and Development —
 Total Operating Expenses —
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit —
 EBITDA —
 EBIT —
 Operating Income —
 Interest Income $ 43.4 M
 Interest Expense $ 29.2 M
 Net Interest Income $ 14.1 M
 Income Before Tax $ 46.0 M
 Tax Provision $ 12.6 M
 Tax Rate 27.5 %
 Net Income $ 33.3 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations $ 33.3 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate $ 0.53
 EPS Actual $ 0.75
 EPS Difference $ 0.22
 EPS Surprise 41.509 %
 Forward EPS $ 0.44
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets $ 5.1 B
 Intangible Assets $ 1.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets $ -317.29 M
 Total Current Assets —
 Cash and Short-Term Investments —
 Cash $ 106.4 M
 Net Receivables —
 Inventory —
 Long-Term Investments —
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable —
 Short-Term Debt —
 Total Current Liabilities —
 Net Debt $ 767.3 M
 Total Debt $ 940.6 M
 Total Liabilities $ 3.9 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity $ 1.2 B
 Retained Earnings $ 1.2 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share $ 19.87
 Shares Outstanding 62.253 M
 Revenue Per-Share $ 5.06
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization $ 1.2 B
 Enterprise Value $ 2.2 B
 Enterprise Multiple —
Enterprise Multiple QoQ —
Enterprise Multiple YoY —
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA —
 EV/R 6.86
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 4.12
 Asset To Liability 1.321
 Debt To Capital 0.432
 Debt To Assets 0.185
Debt To Assets QoQ 5.301 %
Debt To Assets YoY 1763.939 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.337
GHLD: 0.185
mean: 0.081
median: 0.068
low: 0.003
 Debt To Equity 0.76
Debt To Equity QoQ 4.956 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1812.654 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.306
GHLD: 0.76
mean: 0.649
median: 0.287
low: 0.014
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.985
Price To Book QoQ 3.953 %
Price To Book YoY 20.894 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 2.396
mean: 1.07
GHLD: 0.985
median: 0.974
low: 0.422
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 36.929
Price To Earnings QoQ 37.423 %
Price To Earnings YoY 22.617 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 103.776
mean: 39.709
GHLD: 36.929
median: 34.473
low: -5.374
 PE/G Ratio -1.875
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.872
Price To Sales QoQ -2.574 %
Price To Sales YoY -31.97 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 26.419
mean: 11.127
median: 10.808
GHLD: 3.872
low: 2.168
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 43.559
Forward PE/G -2.211
Forward P/S 18.841
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage —
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.062
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.542 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 72.968 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA GHLD: 0.062
high: 0.022
mean: 0.013
median: 0.012
low: 0.001
 Receivables Turnover —
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ —
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY —
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA —
 Inventory Turnover —
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ —
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY —
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA —
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) —
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 93.2
mean: 40.617
median: 34.388
low: 15.176
GHLD: 0
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio —
 CapEx To Revenue -0.006
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.211
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital $ 2.1 B
 Net Invested Capital $ 2.1 B
 Invested Capital $ 2.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets $ -317.29 M
 Net Working Capital —
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio —
 Current Ratio —
Current Ratio QoQ —
Current Ratio YoY —
Current Ratio IPRWA —
 Quick Ratio —
Quick Ratio QoQ —
Quick Ratio YoY —
Quick Ratio IPRWA —
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA —
 Cost Of Debt 2.324 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio —
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ —
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY —
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA —
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio —
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) —
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 2.141
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.467
 Dividend Rate $ 0.25
 Dividend Yield 0.013
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.261 %
 Revenue Growth 8.404 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -80.275 %
Revenue Growth YoY -119.628 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 20.816 %
GHLD: 8.404 %
median: 2.668 %
mean: 1.927 %
low: -10.179 %
 Earnings Growth -19.697 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -122.239 %
Earnings Growth YoY -582.533 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 61.667 %
mean: 3.99 %
median: -0.719 %
GHLD: -19.697 %
low: -53.247 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin —
Gross Margin QoQ —
Gross Margin YoY —
Gross Margin IPRWA —
 EBIT Margin —
EBIT Margin QoQ —
EBIT Margin YoY —
EBIT Margin IPRWA —
 Return On Sales (ROS) —
Return On Sales QoQ —
Return On Sales YoY —
Return On Sales IPRWA —
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) $ 77.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 6.322 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -116.931 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -522.029 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 12.009 %
GHLD: 6.322 %
median: 3.151 %
mean: 2.492 %
low: -6.017 %
 Free Cash Growth -117.882 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -65.464 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 20.758 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 410.807 %
mean: 29.333 %
median: -0.346 %
GHLD: -117.882 %
low: -542.365 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.312
 Cash Flow Margin 13.324 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.258
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added $ 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.658 %
Return On Assets QoQ 69.152 %
Return On Assets YoY -145.379 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 0.732 %
GHLD: 0.658 %
mean: 0.344 %
median: 0.311 %
low: -0.372 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) —
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.027
Return On Equity QoQ 75.734 %
Return On Equity YoY -146.609 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.071
median: 0.033
mean: 0.032
GHLD: 0.027
low: -0.037
 DuPont ROE 2.715 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) —
Return On Invested Capital QoQ —
Return On Invested Capital YoY —
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA —

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term bias favors consolidation with modest downside risk. Technical momentum indicators—declining DI+, rising DI-, negative and falling MACD, a positive MRO showing price above target, and decreasing RSI—collectively project pressure toward short-term mean reversion rather than an immediate breakout. Limited volume and compressed price bands increase the chance of range-bound action unless a clear momentum reversal or news catalyst emerges.

Fundamental drivers that could alter this path include continued beats to adjusted earnings and cash generation or material corporate developments that change capital structure or strategic direction. Conversely, any deterioration in origination margins, a jump in funding costs, or a material rise in leverage-related expenses would accelerate downside pressure. Swing traders should monitor momentum confirmations—specifically directional indicator flips or a MACD dip-and-reverse—before expecting directional follow-through; absent those signals, expect tight trading ranges and headline-driven moves.

About Guild Holdings Company

Guild Holdings Company (NYSE:GHLD) develops a comprehensive platform for the U.S. residential mortgage industry, with a legacy that dates back to 1960. Based in San Diego, California, Guild Holdings creates and manages residential mortgage loans through its two main segments: Origination and Servicing. In the Origination segment, Guild Holdings offers a wide array of mortgage products through retail and correspondent channels, addressing the needs of a diverse range of homebuyers. The company emphasizes personalized service and innovative mortgage solutions, establishing itself as a reliable partner for individuals and families pursuing home financing. The Servicing segment concentrates on managing the loans they originate, providing ongoing support and service to customers throughout the duration of their mortgage. This approach ensures stability and continuity, reinforcing Guild Holdings’ position in the mortgage market. Guild Holdings leverages its extensive experience and customer-focused strategy to effectively navigate the ever-changing housing market, assisting numerous Americans in achieving their homeownership goals.



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