Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (NYSE:SPH) Projects Near-Term Upside Despite Momentum Reversal

Suburban Propane shows supportive short-term price structure while momentum indicators signal caution; fundamental metrics and WMDST valuation point to an under-valued stock with potential catalysts over the coming weeks.

Recent News

On October 17, 2025 Suburban Propane hosted “Trucks Are for Girls” with the Girl Scouts of Northern New Jersey and Women in Trucking to promote careers in energy and transportation. On October 23, 2025 the company announced a quarterly distribution of $0.325 per common unit payable November 11, 2025 to holders of record as of November 4, 2025.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 18.25 indicates no established trend in price strength; directional movement readings show DI+ 20.35 increasing and DI- 15.71 decreasing, a configuration that favors upside pressure but lacks confirmed trend strength because ADX remains below 20.

MACD sits at 0.13 with a 0.11 signal and carries a peak-and-reversal profile. The peak-and-reversal denotes bearishing momentum, yet the MACD currently trades above its signal line, constituting a short-term bullish crossover that can support limited upside in the near term.

MRO at -9.54 signals the market price sits below the modeled target and therefore implies potential upward pressure; the MRO trend increasing reinforces the prospect of corrective upside toward the modeled level.

RSI at 53.21 sits near the midpoint while the RSI trend shows a peak-and-reversal, indicating renewed bearish pressure on momentum despite the midpoint reading.

Price at $18.81 trades marginally above short- and long-term averages: 12-day EMA $18.68 (increasing), 26-day EMA $18.54, 20-day average $18.63, 50-day average $18.36 and 200-day average $18.62. That positioning places the market price above multiple moving-average supports and aligns with short-term bias toward higher levels, with the 12-day EMA confirming recent upward drift.

Bollinger bands place a 1x lower band at $18.23 and 1x upper at $19.03; the close sits inside the upper half of the band range, leaving room to test the band ceiling near $19.03. Ichimoku components (Tenkan/Kijun $18.56, Senkou A $18.09, Senkou B $17.79) show price above the cloud, providing a technical support floor around $18.09–$17.79. SuperTrend lower support registers at $18.33.

Volume at 126,408 falls below 10-day and 200-day averages, and 42-day and 52-week volatility readings remain low; those conditions favor contained moves rather than large breakouts, increasing the chance of steady mean-reversion rather than abrupt swings.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings for the period ended September 30, 2025 reported on November 13, 2025 show EPS actual -$0.54 versus estimate -$0.51, an EPS surprise of -5.88% (actual below estimate by $0.03). Forward EPS stands at $0.5375 with a forward P/E of 34.38.

Trailing P/E reads -33.81, reflecting negative trailing earnings; forward P/E at 34.38 reflects positive expected earnings on the horizon. WMDST notes a forward PEG of 0.255 and a current PEG of -0.25085; the company PEG sits negative while the industry peer mean PEG equals 2.84622 and the industry peer median PEG equals 1.41942, with an industry peer range from -16.11768 to 26.49579.

Earnings growth measures show an overall earnings growth of 134.78%, but sequential and annual dynamics present pressure: earnings growth QoQ -221.48% and earnings growth YoY -13.35%. Revenue growth reads 0.0% overall, with revenue growth QoQ -100.00% and revenue growth YoY -100.00% as reported. Cash flow margin registers 0.0% and cash flow to earnings 0.0%. Cost of debt stays low at 1.08%.

Invested capital totals $1,346,671,000. Price target dispersion runs from $12.94 low to $26.41 high with a mean target of $18.11; the last close at $18.81 sits slightly above the mean target. WMDST values the stock as under-valued, reflecting the combination of modest forward earnings, low financing cost, and a forward PEG that implies limited earnings multiple compression relative to the industry peer mean.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-13
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-12
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EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate $ -0.51
 EPS Actual $ -0.54
 EPS Difference $ -0.03
 EPS Surprise -5.882 %
 Forward EPS $ 0.54
 
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EQUITY
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VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
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VALUATION
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PRICE-BASED VALUATION
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 Price To Earnings (P/E) -33.81
Price To Earnings QoQ -58.556 %
Price To Earnings YoY 30.893 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 113.177
mean: 68.931
median: 59.659
low: 32.942
SPH: -33.81
 PE/G Ratio -0.251
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FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 34.379
Forward PE/G 0.255
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EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
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ASSET & SALES
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CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
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 Invested Capital $ 1.3 B
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 Cost Of Debt 1.077 %
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PERFORMANCE GROWTH
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 Revenue Growth 0.0 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -100.0 %
Revenue Growth YoY -100.0 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 9.471 %
mean: 4.467 %
median: 4.197 %
SPH: 0.0 %
low: -2.077 %
 Earnings Growth 134.783 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -221.479 %
Earnings Growth YoY -13.354 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA SPH: 134.783 %
high: 47.573 %
mean: 9.996 %
median: 8.654 %
low: -90.909 %
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Six-Week Outlook

Near-term price action should respond to the tension between directional indicators that favor upside (DI+ rising, price above EMAs, Ichimoku support) and momentum measures that warn of waning strength (MACD peak-and-reversal, RSI peak-and-reversal). MRO below zero with an increasing trend suggests corrective upside toward modeled targets, while ADX below 20 indicates trend weakness and increases the likelihood of choppy movement rather than a sustained breakout.

Low volatility and low beta imply moves may remain measured; traders should monitor volume and whether the MACD reverses its peak-and-reversal or the ADX climbs above 20 to confirm trend strength. Corporate catalysts to watch include distribution payments already scheduled and the next report date on February 12, 2026, which could reset expectations for forward earnings metrics and the forward P/E.

About Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (NYSE:SPH) distributes and markets propane, renewable propane, fuel oil, and refined fuels across the United States. Through its Propane segment, the company supplies propane for residential uses such as space heating, water heating, cooking, and clothes drying, as well as for industrial applications including motor fuel for vehicles and equipment. The Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels segment delivers fuel oil, diesel, kerosene, and gasoline to residential and commercial customers, primarily for heating purposes. In the Natural Gas and Electricity segment, Suburban Propane markets natural gas and electricity to customers in deregulated markets in New York and Pennsylvania. The All Other segment provides sales, installation, and maintenance services for home comfort equipment, including heating systems, air cleaners, and space heaters. Serving a diverse customer base, including residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. maintains a strong presence on the east and west coasts, as well as in the Midwest and Alaska. Founded in 1945, the company is headquartered in Whippany, New Jersey.



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